When to Worry (Submariners Ashore)

In order of increasing likelihood:

10. Watch out if this organization begins secret psychological studies in this new field. Much longer submarine deployments without crew rotations could be the impetus. Although much of the Naval Submarine Medical Research Laboratory (NSMRL) research is classified, this stupid concept must be considered extremely unlikely (listed for novelty ONLY).

9. Politics being what it is, and the prospects of 3 new people for Commander in Chief, two of whom scorn the military in general, one males in particular, and the third of whom has little use for submariners, the pressure will build for female crew assignments on submarines. The concept is both inadvisable and would be severely damaging to morale, recruiting, mission and female crew safety. Worse, such a move would be very difficult to ever undo. (Actually, this should probably be number 5 below - most likely, but it pairs nicely with the preceeding entry).

8. While China's scientist can be world class, her bureaucrats and business managers are crudely regulated and relatively uninterested in human safety concerns, unlike their Western counterparts. We have seen recalls of children's toys, candy, medicine, petfood, toothpaste, etc. during 2007.

What happens when the People's Republic decides it current fleet of nuclear submarines is obsolescent and needs replacement (within 12 years)? How safely will the nuke power plants be decommissioned and radioactive core materials managed? Irradiated fuel might be used in radiological dispersal devices (dirty bomb), leaked from inadequate storage facilities, or dumped in the sea creating environmental disasters for the world community.

7. The U.S. submarine force is poised to enter a niche of net-centric superiority over its potential foes. Integration of subs into surface warfare commands by JC3I (joint Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence) compatibility carries a huge risk. It all goes out the window with explsion of a single nuclear detonation in space. M.E. has illustrated this concern before, but is lately joined by Scientific American - Space Wars - Coming to the Sky Near You?

The results of a nuclear detonation in space could be even worse: the electro- magnetic pulse and blast of charged particles would degrade all but the most heavily shielded electronics systems in orbit. Space war could push the world economy back into the 1950s, as communications, navigation, weather and other advanced satellite services would be rendered impractical for years to come.

6. What will it mean to U.S. security arrangements when a formidable PLAN ship (carrier, missile cruiser or submarine) makes a port visit to Venezuela, Ensenada, Mexico, or Cuba? Contrast this to the panic of the 1962, Cuban Missile Crisis. Is the U.S. prepared?

5. (reserved for future disclosure)

4. (reserved for future disclosure)

3. (still classified - maybe this guy knew)

2. (still classified - maybe this guy knew)

1. (still classified - maybe SECDEF knows)