Saturday, February 06, 2016

Submarine Quote of the Week - 6 FEB 16

Background

Poor journalism but excellent Sun Tzu strategy
Not only are Russian submarines returning to Cold War levels of operational activity, but Russian submarines have made a major jump in technological performance, Vice Adm Johnstone said, with NATO seeing "a level of Russian capability that we haven't seen before".

Submarine Quotation of the Week

"I think none of that would worry us if we knew what the game plans were or we knew why they were deploying or what they were doing … we don't understand what the strategic and operational objectives are of the Russian state."  -  Royal Navy Vice Adm. Clive Johnstone, Commander, Allied Maritime Command, IHS Jane's Defence Weekly, Russian submarine activity topping Cold War levels, by Nicholas de Larrinaga, London, 02 February 2016.

******* 
Molten Eagle's Analysis
  • Why the erroneus reporting by Business Insider that quoted Vice Admiral Clive Johnstone as a "U.S. Navy" admiral when he is obviously not?  Also, why inject the U.S. into the Business Insider's reporting story at all?
  • ANSWER:  Not sloppy reporting, but more than likely to make it more relevant since most of BI's readership are in the U.S. and North America.  

  • Why a strange profession of ignorance by NATO's Maritime leader when the strategic significance of the Arctic to Russia has been plain from the get go?
  • ANSWER:  Someone, most likely Russia, is being deliberately conned into spending lots of time and treasure in the Arctic. This could be a deliberate distraction from something of much greater significance. And what possibilities might be greater than oil? Might there be something on the order of this one, or even this one?

Submarines are always silent and strange.


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Wednesday, February 03, 2016

Update V: Low Energy Nuclear Reaction (LENR) Power

Background

The pace of interest has been increasing 

The 1989 Fleischman - Pons experiment was eventually debunked and since then the term cold fusion has become almost synonymous with scientific chicanery. 

 I.   27  JUN  2005 - "Cold Fusion Revival and The US NAVY"

II.  27 MAY 2010 -  "Navy Scientists Zip Lips LENR"

III. 17 AUG  2012 - "Something real is happening." 

IV. 06 NOV 2014 -  "Periodic Update for LENR power (Cold Fusion)"


"The scientists trying to replicate the work of Fleischman and Pons were mainly looking for nuclear signals, like radiation, which generally are not present. They missed that heat was the main by-product. In addition, I learned that there have been nearly 50 reported positive test results, including experiments at Oak Ridge, Los Alamos, EPRI, and SRI." - Tom Darden, founder and CEO of the $2.2 billion private equity fund Cherokee Investment Partners.


UPDATE V

August 2015 - After a lapse of two decades, the Japanese government has issued a request for proposals for low-energy nuclear reaction (LENR) research.  "The budget for this program this year is $27 million".  

September 2 015 - Scientists get locked into paradigms until the paradigm shifts. Then everyone happily shifts to the new truth and no one apologizes for being so stupid before.  It’s like when physicists say that according to the laws of aerodynamics bumblebees can’t fly but they do.

Rossi was awarded an important U.S. patent recently... This is one of very few LENR-related patents to date. But let me make one thing very clear. We don’t know for sure yet whether it will be commercially feasible. We’ve invested more than $10 million so far in Rossi’s and other LENAR technology and we’ll spend substantially more than that before we know for certain because we want to crush all the tests. (Recently, we have been joined by Woodford Investment Management in the U.K., which has made a much larger investment into our international LENR activities—so we are well funded.) 
- Tom Darden

 January 2016 -  After 25 years of experimentation, several research groups have produced evidence that real nuclear reactions lay behind the results claimed by Profs Fleischmann and Pons.  The problem according to Professor Huw Price, a philosopher of science at Cambridge university, is that cold fusion became a “reputation trap” which most researchers avoid because they know the scientific world will not take their work seriously. 

*****
Submarines are always silent and strange.

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Monday, February 01, 2016

ANSWERS: Sub Questions of Week (28 JAN 16)

Background

Related information, photo(s) and links for questions are found in the original posting.

ANSWERS Submarine Questions of the Week


1  -  Why are modern, military-quality submarines not prone to capsizing?   ANS:  By virtue of their capability to submerge and operate near neutral buoyancy, submarine design includes features allowing significant ballast controls. ( more )

2  -  Is it even possible for modern, military-quality subs to capsize?  ANS:  Not only is it possible, as recently as 1979, a Danish military submarine did capsize, though not at sea:   



(The following relate to the recent capsizing of car carrier Modern Expess)
3  -  If the vessel shown has not washed up upon a beach, approximately where is it?  ANS: The photograph accpmpanying the question shows the capsized vessel in the In the Bay of Biscay.

4  -  Has the crew been rescued?  ANS: Fortunately, yes, all 22 men were rescued by Spanish authorities last Tuesday in an operation co-ordinated by the UK’s Falmouth Coastguard. 

5  -  From where did it sail, and to where was it sailing?  ANS: The Modern Express had sailed from Gabon, Africa en route to port Le Havre, France.
 

6 -  How large (tonnage) is the vessel, and with what cargos is it said to be laden?  ANS:  The Modern Express is a mid-sized car carrier of 33,000 tons.  Besides a cargo of 3,600 tons of timber and construction equipment, it also carries 300 tons of fuel which could complicate an ongoing salvage operation. 

7 -  Where is the pilot house located? ANS:  Due to the vessels severe list, the
Modern Express's pilot house was not visible in the photo published with the QOTW.  It is positioned forward in the vicinity of the bow (as shown below):

8 -  Has this vessel sunk or has it been towed?  ANS:
A Spanish tugboat is currently towing Modern Express to open sea.
 

Submarines are always silent and strange.
 

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Thursday, January 28, 2016

Sub Questions of the Week: 28 JAN 2016

Background

When a vessel's center of mass rises much above its center of bouyancy the ship is prone to "keel over" or capsize and may even sink (founder).  Photo of a recently distressed surface vessel:

Sub Questions of the Week

1  -  Why are modern, military-quality submarines not prone to capsizing?

2  -  Is it even possible for modern, militray-quality subs to capsize?

the following questions relate to above photo  
3  -  If the vessel shown has not washed up upon a beach, approximately where is it?

4  -  Has the crew been rescued?

5  -  From where did it sail, and to where was it sailing?

6 -  How large (tonnage) is the vessel, and with what cargos is it said to be laden?

7 -  Where is the pilot house located?

8 -  Has this vessel sunk or has it been towed?

ANSWERS:  Monday, 1 FEB 2016

Submarines are always silent and strange.

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Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Submarine Quote of January 2016

Background

UPDATE 27 JAN 2016: "Replacing the ageing Vanguard-class submarine fleet - the only underwater vessels capable of carrying nuclear warheads - is expected to cost £31billion over 30 years -"  MAL-JOURNALISM source  (nuclear tipped torpedoes obviously carry nuclear warheads, too).

Why Journalists Get so much Wrong - The Problem and the Fix (2011

Professional journalists* (paid writers) rarely consider much less comply with M.E.'s obvious best practices of reporting:
1) Either possess expertise in matters upon which you, the journalist, report facts to readers, or disclose your inexpertise.
2) Report contrary assessments by dissenting experts when topics are controversial.
3) Never write an opinion piece without related education and experience that sets you apart from uneducated, inexperienced readers. 


Submarine Mal-Journalism (2008

Submarine Quote of the Month

[color emphasis added]
With Israel’s flag flapping over the country’s newest piece of military hardware, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu descended very carefully into the nuclear submarine INS Rahav at its inaugural ceremony this month in Haifa.

.....The Jewish state has for years also been modernizing and expanding its fleet of nuclear submarines, which are seen mainly as a deterrent to a long-range Iranian missile strike on Israel, but are also capable of directing firepower at militants around the Mediterranean basin. - "Facing threats and opportunity, Israel forges Mediterranean alliance" - by Joshua Mitnick,  The Christian Science Monitor, Jan. 25, 2016.



 

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Friday, January 22, 2016

"Operational Attorneys": How to Impede and Degrade U.S. Sub Force Preeminence

U.S. Submarine Force Vision 

Then 1998 Navy

"The U.S. Submarine Force will remain the world’s preeminent Submarine Force. We will aggressively incorporate new and innovative technologies to maintain dominance throughout the maritime battlespace. We will promote the multiple capabilities of submarines and develop tactics to support national objectives through battlespace preparation, sea control, supporting the land battle, and strategic deterrence. We will fill the role of the Joint Commander’s stealthy, full spectrum expeditionary platform." - Malcolm Fages Rear Admiral, U.S. Navy Undersea Warfare Fall 1998 Vol. 1, No. 1 

2015 JAG (Navy Lawyer)

"Military commanders and their operational attorneys must be cognizant of the myriad environmental laws, treaties, associated regulations, international agreements and policies that apply to military activities and operations within and outside the United States. Deciphering applicable environmental considerations can quickly become complicated and is dependent on numerous factors to include the nature of the operation, where it takes place, and the associated host nation’s relevant environmental laws and regulations. Irrespective of the environmental legal drivers, respecting host nation and global environmental norms are often inextricably linked to larger strategy and mission goals. Indeed, the failure to comply with non-prescriptive environmental standards and norms abroad can generate worldwide criticism that ultimately undermines the strategic goals of the larger military operation and can negatively the health and safety of servicemembers."  -  - Mark P. Nevitt, Commander, United States Navy Judge Advocate General’s Corps, Environmental Law in Military Operations (September 24, 2015)

2016 Law Professor (Naval War College Lawyer) 

 .... While submarine espionage does not appear to be inconsistent with the law of the sea, espionage in the territorial sea is injurious to the sovereignty of the coastal state. - James Kraska, Professor of International Law, U.S. Naval War College, LAWFARE, Submarines and the Law of Espionage, January 6, 2016.

Now 2002-2016 Navy 


"[T]he submarine force is “10 ships below what’s absolutely required to do the nation’s business in the 2020s. - Adm. William H. Hilarides, Naval Sea Systems Command,  SEAPOWER Magazine, January 14, 2016, NAVSEA Commander: Navy is 10 Subs Below its Needs
 

Full disclosure: Hilarides noted that he was a submarine program manager when the decision was made in 2002 to maintain a build rate less than what could sustain the size of the force. Sequestration would later become part of the Budget Control Act of 2011.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

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Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Wednesday Whodunnit & Why

Background: Tuesday State of the Union Address

"Viewership for Obama's State of the Union addresses has been in decline since 2009, when he drew 52.4 million television viewers. Subsequently, 48.0 million watched on television in 2010, 42.8 million in 2011, 37.8 million in 2012, 33.5 million in 2013 and 33.3 million in 2014." -CNN 

An Administration Manufactured Event?

"Ten American sailors have been taken into custody in Iran," he said in a statement. "But President Obama completely omitted this latest example of Iran's provocative behavior so as not to interfere with his delusional talking points about his dangerous nuclear deal with Iran. - House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy 

News of this curiously unexplained capture (including 1 woman)  preceeded the East coast's dinner hour to generate interest just-in-time for Obama's final S.O.T.U.  a few hours later at 9 PM.

So despite a perfectly-timed, human interest story Obama's viewership still declined by almost 5%, attracting ONLY 31.7 million viewers (1.6 million fewer than in 2015).  

Questions:

What would viewership have been without the sailor story?

Answer: Even more embarrassing for the administration.

Was the Iranian capture event manufactured with or without SECNAV Mabus's knowledge?

Answer: If a manufactured event, it could not have been without his implicit approval. 

Would such a manufactured event have to have been coordinated in advance with Iran?

Answer:  Certainly.

What inducement(s) could Iran have been offered to go along with the event? 

Answer:  Let's think; besides humiliating the U.S. navy, what does Iran wish that the U.S. can possibly hasten? Hints: (sanctions, 'peaceful' nuclear developments), and then there is PR (photographic one upmanship): 

Finally, would Secretary of State Kerry have been involved in coordinating such an event with Iran

Answer:  Draw your own conclusions. During his tour of duty as an Officer in Charge of Swift boats, Kerry led five-man crews on patrols into enemy-controlled areas.

Secretary of State John Kerry told CNN's Dana Bash that he expected the sailors to be released "very soon" but would not be more specific. He was speaking at the Capitol ahead of the start of Obama's speech.

A senior State Department official, though, told Fox News that there was “no apology from Kerry” to the Iranians.  

Submarines are always silent and strange.

 

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