Monday, November 27, 2017

ARA San Juan Missing New Questions Raised

UPDATE #2 (4 DEC 17) -

According to today's related report Missing Argentine Sub's Crew Informed About Device's Failure in Sept
MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The crew of the missing Argentine submarine San Juan with 44 crew members on board reported in September [months before its loss] that the submarine's snorkel, a device which takes in air from the surface and ensures submerged operation, failed, causing water to enter into the vessel, the Clarin newspaper reported, citing the Argentine Navy report. [UNCONFIRMED]

However, according to the outlet, important parts were not flooded and the submarine was scheduled for repair works in 2018.

**************  MOLTEN EAGLE **************
If true, the above report underscores the relevance of our original questions (#1 and #2), why would ARA San Juan compound its difficulty (a very low after battery charge) with the attendant hazards of  sailing underwater? and was the diesel propulsion system out of commission after the snorkle flooded? However, an explosion quite renders question #3 (was the emegency blow system out of commission due to inadequate air pressure?) irrelevant.  Now that we know crewmember Rothlisberger was permitted to miss the sub's last departure after performing a series of tasks for his boss.  What, if any mechanical responsibilities did his boss have and such permission is rarely accorded unless the tasks have been so arduous that fatigue could undermine crew readiness. On the contrary could Rothlisberge's presence on the last trip have helped save the sub San Juan? A good journalist would at least ask probe glaring questions and perhaps obtain credible answers.

UPDATE #1 (4 DEC 17) -

According to a FOXNEWS  report 24 NOV 17 2 sailors didn't board missing Argentina submarine at the last minute

 At the very last minute, two sailors did not board the Argentinian submarine that has been lost in the South Atlantic [since 15 NOV].

For different reasons, Humberto Vilte and Adrián Rothlisberger did not board the submarine with the 44 other crew members, according to O Globo, a Brazilian newspaper.

Vilte was allowed to skip the mission after he learned that his mother had been hospitalized, O Globo reported. Rothlisberger was allowed
[to miss the trip after completing tasks] for his boss, according to O Globo. He avoided the trip in “a matter of seconds,” Sandra Álvares [his mother] said.

BACKGROUND

The submarine ARA (Armada de la República Argentina) San Juan (S-42) has been considered missing since 17 November, two days since it had been ordered back to its Mar del Plata base after reporting a water deluge through its snorkel short-circuited its forward battery and reportedly not heard from again.

The San Juan had only a seven-day oxygen supply when it lost contact, and a sudden noise was detected that the navy says could have been the implosion of the vessel. 
Navy spokesman Enrique Balbi told a news conference Monday as hope dwindled among some families of the 44-member crew, including Argentina's first female submariner, Operations Officer Lt. Eliana María Krawczyk

LATEST & GLARINGLY UNANSWERED

“They had to isolate the battery and continue to sail underwater toward Mar del Plata, using another battery,” Balbi said.

GLARING QUESTIONS 

(1)
Unless another casualty has not been disclosed (likely) or a classified mission was still underway (possible?) why would ARA San Juan compound its difficulty (a very low after battery charge) with the attendant hazards of  sailing underwater?  Its Siemens electric propulsion motor would have been less taxed for underwater propulsion, but leave scant battery power available for new emergency needs. Also in the heavy seas after November 15th, submarines roll, pitch and yaw like bouncing logs, submergence was for safety and comfort. Rescue teams from the Royal Navy reported 33 ft waves in the search area.

                                        (2)
Was the diesel propulsion system out of commission after the snorkle flooded? All the more reason to surface transit. If the snorkle valve system was badly damaged, submergence would have been a very poor choice.
                                        (3)
Was the emegency blow system out of commission (inadequate air pressure), as well?  Dead in the water is usually preferred to dead on the bottom.

                                        (4)
If a hostile presence was involved from which the San Juan sought to hide,  who was behind the hostile force? This seems very unlikely.

                                        (5)
Was there a battery explosion due to saltwater exposure to battery cells?  This looks likely.

*********
Something very secretive in nature is neither being discussed nor disclosed.

Regardless of circumstances, we extend our heartfelt sympathies to families and friends of the latest 44 submariners to lose their lives beneath the waves.

Submarines are always silent and strange.  

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Wednesday, November 08, 2017

Kim Jon Un Dictatorship 4th Update (8 NOV 17)

Background

Our Kim Dynasty countdown had remained at stage 8 on our 12-point scale since ME's 2nd delaration on September 28th. The political pressure on "The Little 'Rocket' Man" has been applied in a most embarassing fashion for him --- through  Today's Asian (The Manila Times) coverage of South Korean President Moon Jae-In's joint press conference with President Trump at the presidential Blue House in Seoul on November 7, 2017.

Consequently we move the 'Rocket Man' COUNTDOWN one step closer to zero at stage 7, the first shift in months (12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0).

UPDATE

SKorea ‘in talks to buy nuclear submarine’ from US – reports
"SEOUL: South Korea is negotiating with the United States to buy nuclear-powered submarines to guard against threats from Pyongyang, local reports said Tuesday, as President Donald Trump said Seoul would buy 'billions of dollars' of US weapons.  ... After a summit in South Korea with his counterpart Moon Jae-In, Trump on Tuesday said Seoul would be buying a large amount of US weapons “whether it’s planes, whether it’s missiles, no matter what it is”.

“The strategic assets under discussion include a nuclear-powered submarine and a sophisticated surveillance asset,” the reports quoted a senior official of Moon’s office as saying. "We will have close consultations with the US about these two in the future,” the official was quoted as saying. 
****** 
Of course, China's envoys will tell DPRK generals that this is merely a Trump tactic to use a bargaining chip in negotiations with China which is entirely probable à la US-Taiwan arms deals. And whatever his generals hear from China, Kim will know and suspect his peasantry will hear. However, some DPRK's generals will have their doubts about how far Trump would go to arm South Korea. Since Kim must already expect defection among his top generals he will crack down (executions), which will make him appear more frightened than ever.  

Kim must continue to distract and befuddle his followers with domestic strife such as:

  •  assassination of an alleged Kim (no doubt accused of plotting a regime takeover)
  • executions of some token missile official who ineptly caused the delay in his pacific hydrogen bomb launch
  • capture and executions of a South Korean spy cell (spotters and informers are already in North Korea)
Any combination of more than one of the above actions within 6 months will move our countdown 2 points closer as it would relect Kim's desperation at perceived panic level.

Trump's provocations are not over. Their impact has been calculated to escalate gradually.
 
PREDICTIONS
Remember, the more agitated and desperate for food and heat the peasants become this winter, the sooner Rocket Man becomes the "Un" Kim Jong-un.  Kim's time is running out. Western news has been covertly getting in, and if Kim survives another 12 months he wins  -- becoming almost invincible in a non-nuclear chess strategy as a formidible future nuclear threat.  This will not happen; either an internal coup takes him out, or he will disappear from public view forever after an ostensible visit to China, a hospital, or a vacation retreat.  

Submarines are always silent and strange.

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Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Kim Jon Un Dictatorship Update

Background

Our Kim Dynasty countdown for last month had Rocket Man stumbling a stage closer to his nonexistence/disappearance and the end of the Kim dynasty at Stage 8. on M.E.'s 0-12 scale  (12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0).

OUR UPDATE

We no longer believe the Kim dynasty must necessarily end with Kim Jong-un's approaching disappearance. So for the moment Rocket Man is still at stage 8, but adding further desperation to the pressures being deftly racheted up by the U.S., its allies and the mainstream media are unsettling news for the Rocket Man. If  his reactive behavior pattern continues, as his military and North Korea's people have been assured, he will reach a point of no return in raising the ante of any continuing military credibility.  That, as his family has always been keenly aware is very bad for the confidence of his fawning generals much less his oppressed people.  
If Kim fails to do so now, he must distract his own followers with some domestic strife such as:
  • assassination of an alleged Kim (no doubt accused of plotting a regime takeover)
  • executions of some token missile official who ineptly caused the delay in his pacific hydrogen bomb launch 
  • capture and executions of a South Korean spy cell (spotters and informers are already in North Korea)
Any combination of more than one of the above actions within 6 months will move our countdown 2 points as it would relect desperation at a panic level.

And finally, because Submarines are always silent and strange and their serious deployments or whereabouts are routinely unannounced, Kim just had more external pressure heaped upon his threatened hydrogen bomb launch:

10 OCT 17 | "The USS Michigan [SSGN-727], a nuclear-powered American submarine, will reportedly arrive in the South Korean port of Busan this weekend amid the ongoing escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, which resulted from Pyongyang's recent nuclear tests and the subsequent war of words between North Korea's leader and US President Trump. 

Following the submarine, the USS Ronald Reagan
[CVN-76] aircraft carrier will also be dispatched to South Korea next week, Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported. "


The Chosun Ilbo is one of the major newspapers in South Korea. With a daily circulation of more than 1,800,000. 



  

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Monday, October 09, 2017

Risky Behavior: Female Updates

BACKGROUND

The alleged incidents come just three years after the first female commander of a warship was stripped of command following allegations of relations with her married third-in- command.  Cdr Sarah West, 41, was removed from command of frigate HMS Portland in August 2014, four years after Capt Holly Graf (USN), and three months after 3 women became the Royal Navy's first female submariners. As it happened, the Royal Navy's first female sub crew served on HMS Vigilant.

FAST FORWARD TO HMS Vigilant NOW

Five HMS Vigilant officers have threatened to resign over affairs on board a Royal Navy'sTrident nuclear missile sub HMS Vigilant by its captain and his executive officer with two different crew women

Submarines are always silent and strange.

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Thursday, September 28, 2017

Kim Dynasty Update: Desperation Visible Internally

BACKGROUND

Kim Jong-Un has been fthe latest figurehead in North Korea's declining Kim Dynasty since his father's death in 2011 as well as Supreme Commander of the Korean People's Army.
He is militarily controversial worldwide and will soon become deeply unpopular with the DPRK's cruelly oppressed citizens. Our previous 'Rocket Man'  coutdown  declared a 9 on our 12-point scale with 0 being the end of his and the Kim Dynasty's days in power.

UPDATE

Today, signs of Rocket Man's desperation, which have been clear outside of North Korea for some time now, may finally become clear to some of his cruelly oppressed citizen - volunteers inside their country. 
  •  Thur,Sep 28th 2017||  Kim Jong-Un releases propaganda video of North Korea 'blowing up' a US aircraft carrier as the dictator brands Trump a 'mad man' and warns US forces will be 'sent to the grave'
 PREDICTION
From now on, the more agitated and desperate for food and heat the ordinary Jim Jong Jangs become the sooner will Rocket Man become an Un Kim Jong-un. We see he hasnow stumbled one stage closer to nonexistence and the end of a dynasty at Stage 8. 
(12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0)

Submarines are always silent and strange.




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Monday, September 25, 2017

What Kim Jong Un Knows is really at stake

BACKGROUND (Today 25 SEPT 17)


Provocation and Effect (Desperation)

North Korea's foreign minister accuses President Trump of declaring war after Trump said the regime "won't be around much longer." That gives the rogue regime "the right to shoot down U.S. strategic bombers even when they are not flying in North Korean airspace", Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters in New York.


The VISIBLE GAME

If North Korea attacks the U.S. military, China will standby as the U.S. retaliates. Naive U.S. citizens cringe in fear at such a horrible, though non-nuclear, prospect.  

The UNSEEN GAME

Members of North Korea's military have been preparing for a coup since before Jong Un's father died.  As Kim orders more unpopular executions to scare his military for any suspected disloyalty, as food stocks dwindle and oil supplies are tightly rationed this coming winter, a military coup will become more popular with ordinary citizens. His own actions have only sped the inevitable coup that Kim Jong Un has always feared. 


And "Rocket Man" [a Trump appellation] Kim fears South Korea has 'spotters' following his every movement, as well as spies in DPRK's ArmyBy now Kim must assume that there has to be at least one Chinese informer among his leadership cabinet. 

PREDICTIONS
Trump's provocations are not over. Their impact has been calculated to escalate gradually. Kim's time is running out. Western news has been covertly getting in, and if Kim survives another 12 months he wins  -- becoming almost invincible in a non-nuclear chess strategy as a formidible future nuclear threat.  This will not happen; either an internal coup takes him out, or he will disappear from public view forever after an ostensible visit to China, a hospital, or a vacation retreat.  

The countdown for Rocket Man is at about this stage: 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0.  

Submarines are always silent and strange.

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Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Caruso Satire ... (owed him a favor)






Sometimes there is no explaining Juan; this sure looks like one of those.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

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