Would Not Hold Your Breath for 2009 U.S. Submarine Lottery and Gasoline Prices

PREDICTION - Virginia Class Sub Construction will be curtailed May 14, 2008 - Another $422 Million for subs? - The Navy’s official shipbuilding plan called for one submarine per year through 2011, then two per year beginning in 2012. A congressional plan enacted last year would build one additional submarine in either 2010 or 2011 (a total of three subs could be built during 2010 and 2011). M.E. thinks the so-called Hunter Amendment is very doubtful.

M.E.'s predictions for continued sub building in order of declining probability:

.... President Obama - One per year for the duration.

.... President Clinton - About 1.2 boats per year if the current ban on female submarine service is lifted; otherwise, one boat per year for the duration.

.... President McCain - One-half boat per year for the duration (short of a declaration of naval warfare).

2005 PREDICTION came to pass - The price of gasoline

September 01, 2005 - Submarines At Fault or Will Gas Prices Rise? - The prediction:

Loud noises from low frequency active (LFA) sonar used by the military to detect submarines, or from airgun arrays used during geological surveys of the seafloor by the petroleum industry may be responsible for the stranded species. If the latter, expect gas prices to rise!

We know what happened, gasoline prices did rise, and very dramatically. Was oil exploration at fault, then? Judge for yourself. Not into reading, how about some pictures:

Domestic oil recovery and offshore drilling disallowed. International oil production environmentally demonized by carbon footprinting (climate change fear). International oil exploration restricted by legitimate concerns for marine mammal populations. Result is less, more costly exploration and extraction = limited SUPPLY. Of course, demand has increased all the while.

The Answer:

The following refers to the German Imperial Navy's conversion of Germany's first commercial submarine, the Deutschland, to submarine cruiser (U-155). Various reports with further details were cited here last Friday.

Mystery question:
There were a total of eight boats of Deutschland's merchant class subs built, plus Bremen. Because of their original, merchant design, there were only two 20-inch torpedo tubes both in the bow. How heavy was their surface gun battery?

The Answer:

Deutschland's high freeboard and wide beam permitted a relatively heavy deck gun battery of two 5.9-inch (150mm) and two 3.4-inch (88mm) guns. source: The U-151 Class, U-Kreuzer - SteelNavy.com. '...Intended for serious boat-studiers. - Wall Street Journal, April 27, 2004

Submarine history buffs will enjoy the fascinating details and photos of the Kaiser's U-Boats found in the preceeding link.

Weekly Submarine Mystery - One Question

November 19, 1981 - The New York Times - Submarine Tanker Plans -

"General Dynamics Corporation disclosed that it was discussing with several West German shipbuilders plans to build 28 submarine tankers to carry liquefied natural gas from the Arctic to North America and Europe. ... General Dynamics said that it had designed two versions of the tanker submarines, a $725 million nuclear-powered ship and a $700 million version powered by methane."

Germany's history already includes commercial submarines. The Deutschland had been built in 1916 to counter Britain's naval blockade in WW1. The blockade had hindered Germany's war efforts sub- stantially. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Two subs were intended to travel to the neutral United States selling goods in exchange for vital raw materials. Britain and France soon protested submarines used as merchant ships, arguing that they could not be inspected (for munitions) like surface shipping. The U.S. rejected this argument, declaring unarmed submarines merchant vessels. [1] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Deutschland's third journey, planned for January 1917, was aborted when the U.S. abruptly entered the war against Germany due in part to anger over German submarines sinking shipping bound for Great Britain just beyond U.S. territorial waters. The German Imperial Navy converted Deutschland to a submarine cruiser (U-155), a type submarine fitted with added artillery. In three war cruises, Deutschland was subsequently credited with sinking 43 ships. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Becoming a British war trophy in December 1918, Deutschland was scrapped in 1921. Her sister ship, the Bremen, launched its first journey in August 1916 under Karl Schwartzkopf, but never arrived in the US. Its fate is not known with certainty. source

The mystery question:

There were a total of eight boats of Deutschland's merchant class subs built, plus Bremen. Because of their original, merchant design, there were only two 20-inch torpedo tubes both in the bow. How heavy was their surface gun battery? Answer Monday.

Strange Profiles of Fast Attack Sailors

Some submariners had something in common with sailors on wooden ships... Speaker (last line of YouTube video below [1:24]):



Profile of vintage navy sailors ...

"One element of the research I've been doing into this has shown that, in fact, the livelier members of the crew, who get into trouble are also the ones you are likely to promote."

Narrator in the same video (1:18) :

"Surprisingly though, being flogged was not necessarily an indelible black mark on a sailor's career."

Rarely do submariners, usually volunteers, miss movement or take unauthorized absences. Recently, there seem to have been a few severe and noteworthy exceptions.

On a more humorous note, there also may have been exceptions of the vintage variety. Would this have been possible on your boat?

From USS GUARDFISH SEA STORIES:

Examples 'Drowning' in San Juan and Eldon's side of the 'Drowning' story.

The Answer: History Made in Aftermath of HMS Tireless Tragedy

The following refers to events of 21 March 2007, during which Paul McCann, 32, and Anthony Huntrod, 20 of HMS Tireless's crew were killed in an accidental onboard explosion. The submarine was operating near the North Pole with the USS Alexandria (SSN-757) in ICEX07 maneuvers when it had to emergency surface through ice. Various reports with further details were cited here last Friday.

Space age medical history was made in the aftermath of this tragic submarine incident. Answer:

The Tireless incident also marked the first use of non-invasive, pulse CO oximetry for diagnosis of CO poisoning in a remote environment. Information obtained allowed rapid triage screening of one sailor evacuated for hyperbaric oxygen treatment and fifteen others exposed to smoke within the enclosed environment. Abstract of: Fire and ice: diagnosis of carbon monoxide poisoning in a remote environment - D M Crawford, Submarine Development Squadron Five, United States Navy; and N B Hampson, Virginia Mason Medical Center, Seattle.

In the past, methods for measuring CO poisoning had been limited to invasive bloods sampling analyzed by blood gas machines capable of CO-Oximetry. Such machines are usually found only in large hospitals, and when CO poisoning is a possibility, lives are at stake and time is short, so faster, non-invasive methods are needed by first responders to expedite treatment decisions.

The example device shown in the photo above is MASIMO CORPORATION's Rainbow SET Rad-57 Pulse CO-Oximeter™. Models carried aboard space vessels and submarines may be designed to function to standards contemplating relatively harsh conditions.

Weekly Submarine Mystery - One Quote, One Question

Unknowns... What was the sub doing at the time, and when was the accident that caused the two fatalities? Let's review various reports:

Two Royal Naval sailors were killed in an explosion aboard the attack submarine HMS Tireless on Tuesday night. ... Tireless was participating in Ice Exercise 2007 with the Los Angeles-class fast attack submarine Alexandria in 'joint classified testing on submarine operability and war fighting capabilities in Arctic waters' according to a release from Naval Submarine Forces in Norfolk, Va. ... The accident took place at 8:20 p.m. local time and the Tireless surfaced through the ice soon thereafter, the statement said. - The NavyTimes, Thursday Mar 22, 2007.

On [Wednesday] 21 March 2007, two Tireless crew members were killed in an explosion onboard, apparently caused by an oxygen purification candle in the forward section of the submarine. The submarine was in service near the North Pole under ICEX07 along with the USS Alexandria (SSN-757) and had to make an emergency surface through the ice cap. ... Part of the exercise was being used to measure ice thickness by using sonar.[2][3]- Wikipedia article.

Two sailors were killed and another injured aboard a Royal Navy nuclear attack submarine Wednesday after an explosion during the use of a back-up ventilation system, an administrative official with the Ministry of Defence (MOD) told Bellona Web Thursday. According to a statement release by the British MOD, the nuclear reactor of the HMS Tireless was not affected and there was only minimal damage to the bow section of the vessel, where the explosion took place. ... The accident took place while the HMS Tireless was on exercises with the US Navy under the polar ice cap.

Thursday, March 22, 2007 - London (England) - An explosion aboard a Royal Navy nuclear-powered submarine at 0420 GMT yesterday [Wednesday] which left two sailors dead and a third injured was caused by an oxygen "candle", US and British military sources have conformed. HMS Tireless is a Trafalgar-class nuclear attack submarine, which was on exercise under the polar ice cap with the USS Alexandria, a Los Angeles-class nuclear attack submarine. ... [Quote of the Week]- The difference between a minor incident and a major incident onboard a submarine is often measured in very callous terms TG Daily.com

Paul McCann, 32, and Anthony Huntrod, 20, were killed on Wednesday in the incident, which involved an emergency oxygen generator on the submarine HMS Tireless. Both sailors were deployed to the Polar Ice Cap only three weeks ago, the MoD said. guardian.co.uk , Friday, March 23, 2007.

Just guessing, but must presume the Navy Times erred in reporting the accident happened Tuesday night.

More...

Tireless video #1 from Reuters.

Tireless video #2 Released by U.S. Navy

What was HMS Tireless doing at the time? If you or I knew, we would not be free to tell one another.

The mystery question, then:

Space age medical history was made in the aftermath of this tragic submarine incident. Exactly what was new in medical history? Answer Monday.

Update: Israeli Submarine "Second Strike" Deterrent

From October 19, 2006 - Submarine Nuclear Deterrence on a (Relative) Shoestring -

Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said earlier today that the Jewish state was "illegitimate" and could not survive.To be effective, Israel's newest Dolphin submarines (ordered in July, 2006) must be delivered and their crews trained before Iran manages to tip its first, medium-range missile with a nuclear warhead. Israel knows pretty well when such capability will exist and has planned this purchase with ample lead time.

Germany will absorb one-third of the $1.3 billion bill for the diesel-electric propulsion systems that allow the new subs to remain submerged longer than the three nuclear arms-capable submarines already in Israel's fleet, the Jerusalem Post reported. ... Think $1.3 billion is alot? The total acquisition costs of the UK's Trident programme are £12.57 billion (about $24 billion).

Molten Eagle predicted that 'To be effective, Israel's newest Dolphin submarines (ordered in July, 2006) must be delivered and their crews trained before Iran manages to tip its first, medium-range missile with a nuclear warhead. Israel knows pretty well when such capability will exist and has planned this purchase with ample lead time.'

Finally, Israel herself has answered the obvious question: When will Iran have nukes? - May 6, 2008, The Jerusalem Post - Iran could have nukes by '09:

Last week, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said during a visit to the US that Teheran would likely achieve control of the technology to enrich uranium for an atomic bomb within a year. ...CIA Director Michael Hayden said last month that the alleged Syrian nuclear reactor would have produced enough plutonium for one or two bombs within a year of becoming operational.

Published reports indicate Israel's first Dolphin class AIP sub is scheduled to be completed in 2012. The subs will be heavily modified and larger than 209 class subs. What does this tell us? Iran either will not have delivery and guidance for a nuclear strike on Israel before 2012, or Israel already has a sophisticated, second strike capability:

This is a sophisticated command and control system. Blue-green, sea-piercing lasers, developed, in part, at a U.S. weapons lab, can be used to communicate with the subs in so-called "bell ringer" operations. In situations in which war was imminent or had actually started, deployable rockets carrying the lasers would be fired to send the submarines a signal to come to periscope depth for further orders. Blue-green lasers, of the type Israel was known to be developing in the 1980s, can penetrate to 3,000 feet over a range of 6,200-square miles. [Emphasis added]

Since submarines are always silent and strange, I suspect the latter, Israel already has such sophistication, or even better.