Media Investigation of Mar Lago Intrusion Not What It Appears

Chinese woman who allegedly snuck into Mar-a-Lago had device to detect cameras

Obvious: 

• Yujing Zhang's clumsily explained presence was set to appear as a bungled ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) by a Chinese national.
  

• No doubt Zhang is Chinese, but she was not sent by China's government to get caught attempting to test, document and subvert (with her malware (on her thumbdrive) the security of President Trump's favored getaway.  "Now the FBI is investigating whether Yujing Zhang, 33, is an agent of the Chinese government.", says the New York Post, which also states that, The incident helped cost Secret Service chief Randolph “Tex’’ Alles his job Monday.

• The Zhang intrusion was an effort to both discredit Mr. Trump's management acumen and to plant the suggestion of who, besides numerous Deep State subversives and George Dieid *, may wish POTUS assassinated before they can be held to account for their alleged seditious schemes, self-serving treachery, or treasonous activities.

• First on our short list of potential foreign state malefactors is a North Korean fellow who runs a surprisingly capable organization for clandestine operations, who also has close ties with China and may already be developing an EMP-type nuclear warhead that could be purchased by or donated to the :

• Finally on our short list of foreign states is Iran and its likely proxy,  anonymous, highly-educated ISIS sympathizers and operatives.

   * Juan Caruso prefers the NKA (next known as) name for an infamous  "philanthropist" who changed his given name to George S _ _ _.

 Submarines are always silent and strange.

Two Submarine Mysteries: Each Not Telling (Yet)

Molten Eagle:  "Submarines are always silent and strange." 

 

MYSTERY #  1 (Enduring)

Background

"Top Secret Data on India’s New Stealth Attack Submarine Leaked ... French defense contractor DCNS suffered a massive leak of secret documents."  click here for a few details revealed by those leaked documents

(AUGUST 24, 2016) India's Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar seeks submarine data leak report, navy says no need for alarm.  

"The navy also made it clear that the leak did not take place in India. The data, which comprises over 22,000 pages, was leaked, the Australian media reported. It contained documents on the Scorpene submarines, designed by French company DCNS and being built in India by the Mazagaon Dock Limited in Mumbai (Maharashtra) at a cost of around $3.5 billion. The news created ripples in India soon after the report in the Australian media came out."

 (AUGUST 25, 2016)  France and India Claim Submarine Data Leak Is No Big Security Problem
 
"France and India on Thursday played down the security risk posed by leaked data on French-designed submarines that a source told Reuters was probably stolen by a French former employee and that has raised concerns over a $38 billion contract with Australia. More than 22,000 pages of data about six submarines that France's DCNS is building for India's navy looked to have been stolen in 2011 by a subcontractor who was fired while providing training in India, the source said."

(SEPTEMBER 3, 2016) Scorpene leak: India shelves plan to expand French submarine order after data breach

"Details of the Scorpene submarine were published in the Australian newspaper last month, triggering concerns that it had become vulnerable even before it was ready to enter service." 

M.E.'s Rhetorical question: Which nation is responsible for the submarine data leak (Australia, France, India, none of the foregoing)?

****

MYSTERY #  2 (Enduring SSBNs; Temporary SSNs)

Background

"US Naval think tank: The US needs more submarines and smaller aircraft carriers" 

(FEBRUARY 10, 2017) Navy says more money needed to address submarine maintenance shortfall
"Five attack submarines could be decertified this year if Congress fails to provide more money to the Navy to address maintenance and readiness shortfalls, according to government officials.

The Navy did not immediately respond to a request for comment on which submarines are at risk of decertification."

M.E.'s Rhetorical questions (those serving aboard already know):  

• Which 5 U.S. submarines are at risk of "decertification"?  

• Is 5 actually the correct number?

****

Submarines are always silent and strange.

China Just Denuclearized a Sub ... Wait! There is More

Background

China's first ballistic missile submarine, Type 092 submarine (Xia-class), was laid down in 1978, launched in 1981 and commissioned by 1983. - Wikipedia

China's Latest Claims

2016-10-16 |  China's first nuclear submarine decommissioned
China's first nuclear-powered submarine has been decommissioned after more than 40 years of military service, according to the naval authorities.

After undergoing a thorough denuclearization process, the submarine was towed to a wharf belonging to the Chinese Navy Museum in Qingdao, a port city in east China's Shandong Province, on Saturday, where it will be a public exhibit.

The submarine's release from military service and the safe, thorough and reliable handling of related nuclear waste, nuclear reactor and other devices showed China's life-cycle maintenance ability, ranging from a nuclear submarine's production, operation, management to disposal, the naval authorities said.  

Coincidences

AUG. 23, 2016 |  North Korea Test-Fires Missile From Submarine
— North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile from a submarine off its eastern coast on Wednesday, demonstrating a significant improvement in its efforts to build a harder-to-detect means to strike American and allied forces, the South Korean military said.

The missile, launched from near Sinpo, a submarine base, flew 310 miles toward Japan, the South Korean military said in a statement. The statement said that the test showed that North Korea was making “progress” after several failed tests of submarine-launched ballistic missiles, or SLBMs.

A DuplicateSub

"A second boat is thought to have been completed in 1982, however this is debatable. There is little information regarding the history of this ship if in fact it actually existed. It is suggested, though not confirmed, that this second Type 092 was lost in an accident in 1985.^{[6][7][8] "}

Worst Case Analysis

 <sup>Molten Eagle: If a second Xia-class SSBN ship exists, it could well be the one displayed at the Chinese Navy Museum in Qingdao.   With its denuclearized (propulsion reactor systems) removed, the actual Xia, with its 12 missile tubes and 6 torpedo tubes, and which has undergone numerous refits, including new coating, possible quieting technologies, French-designed sonar, and improved longer ranged JL-1A SLBM missiles, would be the game changing launch platform North Korea has been seeking to get within missile range of every U.S. target.

Whether obtained covertly by North Korea or its ally Iran, Xia could easily be refitted with an AIP propulsion plant to provide greater stealth and much simpler operating and training requirements than any nuclear submarine. Such improvements would offer a significant near-term strike nuclear potential to either of these petulant regimes. Does China twist the truth? Calculate the years of service of the Xia and compare to "40 years in active operation" claimed by China.

Submarines are always silent and strange.</sup> 

 

Geopolitical Games with Submarine Pawns

Case #1  U.K.  v. Spain  (Gibraltar)

Background:  26 Jun, 2016 | UK sent a nuclear submarine to Gibraltar yesterday in a show of force against Spain. The move was seen as a response to the Spanish who, emboldened by the shock Brexit result, had demanded joint sovereignty over the Rock on the very same day. 

“There will be no discussion on joint sovereignty – the UK Government has made that clear.”  - source

Interim:
Damaged nuclear-powered submarine HMS Ambush still in port following Gibraltar collision

Foreground:
The chief minister of HM Government of Gibraltar said in a statement last week that "Gibraltar has proudly served as a port of call to provide shelter to the Royal Navy for centuries and this latest visit is no different. HMS Ambush is therefore as welcome today on the Rock as ever."  source

Case #2  U.S.  v.  N.K.  (DPRK)

Background:  July 6th | U.S. sanctions North Korean leader Kim Jong Un

"The United States imposed economic sanctions Wednesday on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and other government officials for their role in human rights abuses in the isolated country, particularly the running of forced labor camps and the torture and executions of dissidents.

The unusual but not unprecedented step of blacklisting a head of state is part of a concerted effort to step up pressure on Pyongyang that began in March when the U.N. Security Council and then the United States imposed harsh restrictions on trade with North Korea over its testing of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

Interim:
July 26 | North Korea reportedly constructing new larger submarine pens

North Korea has accused the United States of declaring war after Kim Jong Un was put on its list of sanctioned people.  Today

Foreground:  Special Operations Command has contracted Lockheed Martin to provide midget submarines to support US Navy SEALs

The DCS is strictly a transportation submarine, capable of carrying six or more SEALs. The most recent prototype can travel up to 60 nautical miles at a depth of 190 feet.

Mini-submarines are used to infiltrate hostile areas with accessible coastlines. SEALs reportedly infiltrated Somalia in 2003 using mini-subs. They would also be useful in countries such as North Korea, Pakistan, China, or even Russia.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Wednesday Submarine Tidbits 26MAR16

Background
Recently noted curiousities of a submarine variety (formerly "Tuesday Tidbits"). Color emphasis by M.E.

New this month to the general public's attention  ...  

#  1

7 Apr 2016 -   DARPA’s Sea Hunter

Rachel Courtland's linked article in the IEEE's Spectrum updates ME's Submarine Questions of the Week (5 APRIL 2016).

Key points previously undisclosed:

• The 132-foot-long (full-scale) prototype is diesel-powered.

• The joint project with the U.S. Office of Naval Research, was originally conceived as a tracker of stealthy diesel-electric submarines, but it’s a flexible platform. “What we’ve kind of realized over the course of the program is that it’s a truck,” program manager Scott Littlefield tells IEEE Spectrum. “It’s got lots of payload capacity for a variety of different missions.”

• Unmanned ships are nothing new. They can, for example, be launched far from shore off a larger vessel and controlled remotely by a human operator. But this arrangement places constraints on the size of such a ship, and its range as well, since it can only carry so much fuel.

Readers may note as this one recently did an apparent contradiction in Sea Hunter's diesel-propulsion (first bullet) and its implied (last bullet) capability of extended range WITHOUT FUEL CONSTRAINTS.  Has the claimed harnessing of fuel from seawater (see earlier posting) been achieved?  Has a more efficient electric fuel cell with a high capacity energy section been discovered?  If either were so, no military in its right mind would dare facilitate related technology theft by installing such state-of-the-art gizmos aboard unmanned vessels.
In M.E's opinion, such hype is appropriate only for inexpensive decoy vessels. 

# 2

20 April 2016 - Why has Russia boosted submarine patrols?

• Russian submarines and spy ships operate near the vital undersea cables that carry almost all global Internet communications, raising concerns among some U.S. military and intelligence officials that the Russians could attack those lines in times of tension or conflict.

• Russia is also building an undersea unmanned drone capable of carrying a small, tactical nuclear weapon to use against harbors or coastal areas, U.S. military and intelligence analysts said. 

# 3

25 Apr 2016 -  Capacity needed to preemptively strike N.K. submarine’s undersea attacks

"If international sanctions fail to lead Pyongyang into giving up its nuclear weapons, South Korea could ultimately face a situation wherein it must take a decisive military action.   ...  If we are to enlighten Kim Jong Un from his irrational dream revealed in a speech to the U.N. by North Korea’s Foreign Minister Ri Su Yong, who said the North will smile ultimately, the South has no other choice but to arm itself with self-defense capability that is completely dominant over Pyongyang."

Submarines are always silent and strange. 
 

State Department: On Submarine Missiles

Background

Some 39,000 lawyers work in federal cabinet agencies in various capacities. The State Department depends heavily on its attorneys.  Lawyers are often noted for their few virtues, including fairness and impartiality.  Some things lawyers generally are often associated with, however, have been penchants for citing complexity and tolerance for political doubletalk.
U.S. foreign policy has been neither predictable nor transparent, at least to those of us who have not paid dearly to influence it.

Now, Clear as Mud?

- INDIA -

India's ambitions for a sea-based nuclear deterrent were acknowledged in 1998.    
March 7, 2016 -  India conducts ballistic missile launch in the Bay of Bengal

March 22, 2016 - India successfully test-fired the K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile earlier this month.  The missile was launched from a submerged replica of a submarine, from water 9 meters (around 30 feet) deep. 

March 25, 2016 - US criticises India over nuclear-capable submarine-launched ballistic missile K-4   Days after India conducted the submarine launch of the nuclear-capable ballistic missile (SLBM) K-4, the United States expressed concern citing risks to nuclear security and regional stability.  

- IRAN -

July 15, 2015 - Things We Must Keep In Mind About Iran Nuclear Deal
 1) It Would Curb Iran's Nuclear Programs, 2) But It Still Allows Iran To Continue Enrichment
3)  House Speaker John Boehner and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu among them — believe that this is a bad deal because it doesn't entirely dismantle Iran's nuclear program.  In a speech to the nation, President Obama said that while that is true, this deal extends Iran's "breakout time" — or the time it would take the country to make enough highly enriched material for a nuclear bomb. The White House estimates that at the moment, Iran's breakout time is two to three months.  
4)  Iran has a longstanding history of cheating on international agreements 
Iran has a long and proud history of cheating on its international nuclear agreements. Olli Heinonen, a former deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) who once monitored Iran’s nuclear program, observed in 2013: “If there is no undeclared installation today .  .  . it will be the first time in 20 years that Iran doesn’t have one.” Indeed, Iran’s main enrichment facility at Natanz was a covert facility that was only discovered in 2002, by the Mojahedin-e-Khalq, an Iranian opposition group. A year later, the European Union struck a deal with Iran to prevent it from spinning its centrifuges and beginning to enrich uranium. Yet for much of the deal, Iran was busy mastering its uranium supply chain. “While we were talking with the Europeans in Tehran,” wrote Iran’s nuclear negotiator and now president Hassan Rouhani, “we were installing equipment in parts of the [uranium conversion] facility at Isfahan.

- NORTH KOREA -

January 6, 2016 - North Korea announces it conducted a fourth nuclear weapons test, claiming to have detonated a hydrogen bomb for the first time. February 7, 2016 - North Korea launches a long-range ballistic missile carrying what it has said is an earth observation satellite in defiance of United Nations sanctions barring it from using ballistic missile technology.February 7, 2016 - North Korea is believed to have more than 1,000 missiles of varying capabilities, including long-range missiles which could one day strike the US.  

March 26, 2016 - North Korea released a new propaganda video Saturday showing a nuclear strike on Washington and then threatened South Korea with a “merciless military strike” for slandering leader Kim Jong-Un.

Submarines are always silent and strange

Kim Jong-un's Stressful Role

Background

Counted among the worst experiences that might befall any dictator are personal or regime embarrassments and world ridicule. For mature dictators political survival and continued existence depends upon keeping power over subjects and projecting it toward foreign states that condemn it. For untested successors survival requires building a new personal power legacy, exercising harsh discipline and possessing even more impressive weapons.   

Following his father's (KIM Jong Il's) death in 2011,  young Kim Jong Un (then 28) assumed most of his father's dictatorial titles, duties and policies.  In the 5 years since, young Kim and his regime have encountered public embarrassments, if not outright ridicule.  In 2013 the regime announced its new policy calling for simultaneous improvements of its nuclear weapons and its economy.  Kim considers foreign condemnation of North Korea's policies proof to his subjects of DPRK's standing as a world power.  Kim Jong-un must also believe that his subjects attribute N. Korea's world standing to him, and that they would defy any attempt by his military to grab his power.  He covets the gratuitous condemnation received by threatening South Korea and the world's superpower --- the U.S.

Some Personal Embarrassments

1 

Security around Kim reportedly increased dramatically in 2012 because Kim "is extremely nervous about the possibility of an emergency developing inside North Korea" caused by "mounting opposition to his efforts to rein in the military".[90]

2

The May 2014 collapse of a 23-story apartment building in Pyongyang was speculated to have caused hundreds of fatalities. No official casualy count was released, but North Korea's' official news agency quickly issued a rare statement of "profound consolation and apology".

3

Kim Jong-un did not appear in public for six weeks in September and October 2014. State media reported that Kim was suffering from an "uncomfortable physical condition". Previously he had been seen limping.^{[134 et al]} When Kim reappeared he used a walking stick.^[140] and in September 2015, the South Korean government observed that Kim appeared to have over the previous five years, reached a total estimated body weight of 290 lb.^[142]

Latest Foreign Ridicule of N. Korea

Kim Jong un is been reversing his predecessor's reliance on the military by stripping its top officers of export controls.  Related cash flows are thus removed from military oversight diminishing a once dominant role.

Chief of Staff, General Ri was last seen in public on January 5, at about the same time as the North’s claimed “hydrogen” bomb test, when he participated in an “inspection of coastal artillery” with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Yonhap reports that its source “raised the possibility that Ri may have raised objections to Kim’s recent appointment of party leaders [civilians] to key military posts.”

Kim's increasing willingness to execute some of the most senior figures in his military may suggest the young leader is struggling to maintain control. Analysts are beginning to wonder how much more the military will put up with. source

Latest Embarrassment for Kim Jong-un  

11 February 2016 - US sends submarine to South Korea

Dispatch of Virginia-class submarine USS North Carolina (SSN-777)  withTomahawk cruise missiles and submarine-launched torpedoes is in response to the recent North Korean space satellite launch condemned by both Seoul and Washington, claiming it may be a veiled missile test violating UN Security Council resolutions.

The spokesperson claimed the United States is also considering dispatching two new combat aircraft with stealth capabilities, possibly a B-2 bomber and an F-22 Raptor fighter plane, to South Korea.

M.E. note:  A new administration may send a vessel like this to anchor off South Korea as a very serious diplomatic message and an instant game changer for N. Korea's young Kim Jong-un.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Kim Jong Un - Takeaway

 

Background

December 2013 - The Takeaways: Execution of North Korea's #2

• Suh Sang-ki, a lawmaker in South Korea's governing Saenuri Party who sits on a parliamentary intelligence committee, said the decision to kill Jang suggests Kim's power is weaker than that of his father.

• There will be many more executions of Jang's allies and confidants," said Park Syung-je, a North Korea expert and chairman of South Korea's Asia Strategy Institute.

• "I think there's going to be a clear amount of brinksmanship," said Philip Yun, executive director of the Ploughshares Fund, a nuclear nonproliferation group. "I think if we continue to wait for him to do things, he's going to continue to shoot missiles, and he'll probably at some point decide to test a nuclear weapon."

Predicted then: Expect a coup in North Korea leadership before Kim Jong-un's birthday in 2017. - M.E.

May 2015 - Kim Jong Un's Next Purge for the BLBM (Barge Launched Strategic Missile)

Predicted then:  Obviously Kim Jong Un cannot excuse another purge by admission of his regime's flawed deceit in the DPRK's SLBM capability.  However, if he accuses the careless propaganda minister of sleeping, well there is already a stern precedent for handling inattentiveness to duty.  The only questions now are the identity of the scapegoat, the method of execution (bullet, is our guess), and how long before the world learns of the purge. - M.E.

Submarines are always silent and strange.