Kim Jon Un Dictatorship 4th Update (8 NOV 17)

Background

Our Kim Dynasty countdown had remained at stage 8 on our 12-point scale since ME's 2nd delaration on September 28th. The political pressure on "The Little 'Rocket' Man" has been applied in a most embarassing fashion for him --- through  Today's Asian (The Manila Times) coverage of South Korean President Moon Jae-In's joint press conference with President Trump at the presidential Blue House in Seoul on November 7, 2017.

Consequently we move the 'Rocket Man' COUNTDOWN one step closer to zero at stage 7, the first shift in months (12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0).

UPDATE

SKorea ‘in talks to buy nuclear submarine’ from US – reports

"SEOUL: South Korea is negotiating with the United States to buy nuclear-powered submarines to guard against threats from Pyongyang, local reports said Tuesday, as President Donald Trump said Seoul would buy 'billions of dollars' of US weapons.  ... After a summit in South Korea with his counterpart Moon Jae-In, Trump on Tuesday said Seoul would be buying a large amount of US weapons “whether it’s planes, whether it’s missiles, no matter what it is”.

“The strategic assets under discussion include a nuclear-powered submarine and a sophisticated surveillance asset,” the reports quoted a senior official of Moon’s office as saying. "We will have close consultations with the US about these two in the future,” the official was quoted as saying. 

****** 

Of course, China's envoys will tell DPRK generals that this is merely a Trump tactic to use a bargaining chip in negotiations with China which is entirely probable à la US-Taiwan arms deals. And whatever his generals hear from China, Kim will know and suspect his peasantry will hear. However, some DPRK's generals will have their doubts about how far Trump would go to arm South Korea. Since Kim must already expect defection among his top generals he will crack down (executions), which will make him appear more frightened than ever.  

Kim must continue to distract and befuddle his followers with domestic strife such as:

•  assassination of an alleged Kim (no doubt accused of plotting a regime takeover)

• executions of some token missile official who ineptly caused the delay in his pacific hydrogen bomb launch

• capture and executions of a South Korean spy cell (spotters and informers are already in North Korea)

Any combination of more than one of the above actions within 6 months will move our countdown 2 points closer as it would relect Kim's desperation at perceived panic level.

Trump's provocations are not over. Their impact has been calculated to escalate gradually.
 
PREDICTIONS
Remember, the more agitated and desperate for food and heat the peasants become this winter, the sooner Rocket Man becomes the "Un" Kim Jong-un.  Kim's time is running out. Western news has been covertly getting in, and if Kim survives another 12 months he wins  -- becoming almost invincible in a non-nuclear chess strategy as a formidible future nuclear threat.  This will not happen; either an internal coup takes him out, or he will disappear from public view forever after an ostensible visit to China, a hospital, or a vacation retreat.  

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Kim Dynasty Update: Desperation Visible Internally

BACKGROUND

Kim Jong-Un has been fthe latest figurehead in North Korea's declining Kim Dynasty since his father's death in 2011 as well as Supreme Commander of the Korean People's Army.
He is militarily controversial worldwide and will soon become deeply unpopular with the DPRK's cruelly oppressed citizens. Our previous 'Rocket Man'  coutdown  declared a 9 on our 12-point scale with 0 being the end of his and the Kim Dynasty's days in power.

UPDATE

Today, signs of Rocket Man's desperation, which have been clear outside of North Korea for some time now, may finally become clear to some of his cruelly oppressed citizen - volunteers inside their country. 

•  Thu, Sep 28, 2017 || North Korean TV Says 'Millions Volunteer' to Join the Army
  State TV released video of what it says are young people lining up 'to join and rejoin' the army. It said more than four million had volunteered.

•  Thur,Sep 28th 2017||  Kim Jong-Un releases propaganda video of North Korea 'blowing up' a US aircraft carrier as the dictator brands Trump a 'mad man' and warns US forces will be 'sent to the grave'

 PREDICTION

From now on, the more agitated and desperate for food and heat the ordinary Jim Jong Jangs become the sooner will Rocket Man become an Un Kim Jong-un. We see he hasnow stumbled one stage closer to nonexistence and the end of a dynasty at Stage 8. 

(12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0)

Submarines are always silent and strange.

What Kim Jong Un Knows is really at stake

BACKGROUND (Today 25 SEPT 17)

Provocation and Effect (Desperation)

North Korea's foreign minister accuses President Trump of declaring war after Trump said the regime "won't be around much longer." That gives the rogue regime "the right to shoot down U.S. strategic bombers even when they are not flying in North Korean airspace", Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters in New York.


The VISIBLE GAME

If North Korea attacks the U.S. military, China will standby as the U.S. retaliates. Naive U.S. citizens cringe in fear at such a horrible, though non-nuclear, prospect.  

The UNSEEN GAME

Members of North Korea's military have been preparing for a coup since before Jong Un's father died.  As Kim orders more unpopular executions to scare his military for any suspected disloyalty, as food stocks dwindle and oil supplies are tightly rationed this coming winter, a military coup will become more popular with ordinary citizens. His own actions have only sped the inevitable coup that Kim Jong Un has always feared. 

And "Rocket Man" [a Trump appellation] Kim fears South Korea has 'spotters' following his every movement, as well as spies in DPRK's Army.  By now Kim must assume that there has to be at least one Chinese informer among his leadership cabinet. 

PREDICTIONS

Trump's provocations are not over. Their impact has been calculated to escalate gradually. Kim's time is running out. Western news has been covertly getting in, and if Kim survives another 12 months he wins  -- becoming almost invincible in a non-nuclear chess strategy as a formidible future nuclear threat.  This will not happen; either an internal coup takes him out, or he will disappear from public view forever after an ostensible visit to China, a hospital, or a vacation retreat.  

The countdown for Rocket Man is at about this stage: 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0.  

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Life on a Small North Korean Submarine

Background

Living in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is strictly regulated under a legal system based on the Prussian Legal System the Best (according to 19th c. Japan) and Communist legal theory. Credible facts about everyday life in North Korean have not flowed as freely as cheerful claims by its leaders.  Credible facts about the DPRK's military have been even more cloistered.  According to the CIA's The World Factbook [color emphasis mine], 18 is presumed to be the legal minimum age for compulsory military service; 16-17 is the presumed legal minimum age for voluntary service (2012).

We wonder what crewing may be like for North Korea's submarine sailors.  Intriguing clues are available from public sources outside of the DPRK in two rare cases that came to the attention of external authorities and news media.

Example One:  Penalty for participation in spy sub's failure

JUNE 27, 1998   9 North Koreans Dead in Submarine

SEOUL— The bodies of nine North Korean sailors and agents were discovered Friday inside a captured North Korean midget submarine, shot and killed in what South Korean officials called an apparent murder-suicide.

Officials said there were signs of a struggle inside the submarine, as four North Korean agents apparently shot themselves to death after first killing five sailors.

South Korean authorities also said there were indications that the vessel, which was captured after becoming entangled in a fisherman's net off the South Korean coast Monday, had been on a spy mission, leaving them divided about how much of an issue to make of this latest North Korean incursion. 

North Korea's Version of Events
The submarine sank as it was being towed into port, it was unclear if this was as a result of damage or a deliberate scuttling by the crew.^[3] On 23 June the Korean Central News Agency admitted that a submarine had been lost in a training accident.

Later, 
On 25 June the submarine was salvaged [not by North Korea] from a depth of approximately 100 feet (30 m) and the bodies of 9 crewmen were recovered, 5 sailors had apparently been murdered while 4 agents had apparently committed suicide.^[5] The presence of South Korean drinks suggested that the crew had completed an espionage mission.^[6] Log books found in the submarine showed that it had infiltrated South Korean waters on a number of previous occasions.^[7]  The bodies of the members of submarine crew were subsequently buried in the Cemetery for North Korean and Chinese Soldiers.^[8]
 

Example Two:  Death benefit to families of submariners 

March 11, 2016 - USNI NEWS |  U.S. Official: North Korean Submarine is Missing, Presumed Sunk

Subsequently, a South Korean news outlet has claimed the sub was sunk and "improved housing" awarded to the families of the sailors lost. (This news has subsequently been removed from the internet). Draw your own conclusions.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Tuesday Submarine Tidbits 15 MAR 16

Background

The latest M.E. posting related to each topic is linked by (item number).

The Tidbits

(1)

"S. Korean military refuses to confirm on missing DPRK submarine"    South Korea's military on Monday refused confirmation on a Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) submarine, which United States media reported had gone missing for days.   ... Seoul's Defense Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-Kyun told a regular press briefing that the intelligence authorities of both South Korea and the United States maintain a position that they cannot confirm the relevant report.

M.E. Comment (a):  Obviously, neither S.Korea, the U.S. or other suspect nations (China, Japan, Russia, [Some rogue element of DPRK,s own military) can be foolish enough to state conclusively the fate of Kim Jong Un's missing sub (an 8-man,  70-ton Yugo class sub used in espionage operations, according to Yonhap.) without raising suspicion of their own guilt in the matter. However, they are free to speculate in a manner that disparages North Korea's readiness.  For EXAMPLE:  "Because these subs are very old, they are susceptible to mechanical breakdowns and due to North Korea's economic situation, it is not likely that they have been well maintained," the military official told Yonhap.
M.E. Comment (b):  An 8-man espionage sub would be a perfect target for a counter-espionage operation.

(2)

"Iran says it recovers information from US sailors' devices" TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran has retrieved thousands of pages of information from devices used by U.S. Navy sailors who were briefly detained in January, the country's state television reported Tuesday. The report quotes Gen. Ali Razmjou, a naval commander in the powerful Revolutionary Guard, as saying that information filling about 13,000 pages was retrieved from laptops, GPS devices and maps.

M.E. Comment (a):  U.S. taxpayers should have expected this administration to have fired another admiral (or general) by now for his poor planning / execution of the embarrassing capture 2 months ago of ten U.S. sailors, including one female.  No such firing at the U.S. Navy's Bahrain-based 5th Fleet, which is responsible for American naval forces in the Gulf, nor in a higher authority has yet come to pass. Obviously then, the quick "catch and release" may have been a nefariously pre-arranged excuse to either plant false information with an enemy, or to share accurate information with Iran's government.  

M.E. Comment (b): Hmmm!  The truth is out there, but acts of espionage are typically not divulged for at least 3 decades.  So, is this why no one has fallen on his sword?

(3)

"2 plane parts to be examined in Australia for links to MH370" KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) — Malaysia's transport minister says two plane pieces found in Mozambique will be sent to Australia to verify if they belong to Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai said Monday both pieces will then be sent to Australia to be examined by an international investigation team. The plane vanished March 8, 2014, with 239 people on board while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. The search is ongoing in the southern Indian Ocean.

M.E. Comment:  Forsenics is an intriguing process, and as time progresses more and more Boeing 777 variants like the MH-370 (a 777-200ER) have been delivered worldwide (1372 to date).  If undisclosed evidence of foul play were not involved, the course of the forensics would not involve such inordinate delays. At this stage, M.E. cannot be critical of the process or non-disclosure of actual evidence in hand.  Why? Remember what was stated in (2) above: "acts of espionage are typically not divulged for at least 3 decades".  

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Kim Jong Un - Takeaway

 

Background

December 2013 - The Takeaways: Execution of North Korea's #2

• Suh Sang-ki, a lawmaker in South Korea's governing Saenuri Party who sits on a parliamentary intelligence committee, said the decision to kill Jang suggests Kim's power is weaker than that of his father.

• There will be many more executions of Jang's allies and confidants," said Park Syung-je, a North Korea expert and chairman of South Korea's Asia Strategy Institute.

• "I think there's going to be a clear amount of brinksmanship," said Philip Yun, executive director of the Ploughshares Fund, a nuclear nonproliferation group. "I think if we continue to wait for him to do things, he's going to continue to shoot missiles, and he'll probably at some point decide to test a nuclear weapon."

Predicted then: Expect a coup in North Korea leadership before Kim Jong-un's birthday in 2017. - M.E.

May 2015 - Kim Jong Un's Next Purge for the BLBM (Barge Launched Strategic Missile)

Predicted then:  Obviously Kim Jong Un cannot excuse another purge by admission of his regime's flawed deceit in the DPRK's SLBM capability.  However, if he accuses the careless propaganda minister of sleeping, well there is already a stern precedent for handling inattentiveness to duty.  The only questions now are the identity of the scapegoat, the method of execution (bullet, is our guess), and how long before the world learns of the purge. - M.E.

Submarines are always silent and strange.