Kim Jon Un Dictatorship 4th Update (8 NOV 17)

Background

Our Kim Dynasty countdown had remained at stage 8 on our 12-point scale since ME's 2nd delaration on September 28th. The political pressure on "The Little 'Rocket' Man" has been applied in a most embarassing fashion for him --- through  Today's Asian (The Manila Times) coverage of South Korean President Moon Jae-In's joint press conference with President Trump at the presidential Blue House in Seoul on November 7, 2017.

Consequently we move the 'Rocket Man' COUNTDOWN one step closer to zero at stage 7, the first shift in months (12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0).

UPDATE

SKorea ‘in talks to buy nuclear submarine’ from US – reports

"SEOUL: South Korea is negotiating with the United States to buy nuclear-powered submarines to guard against threats from Pyongyang, local reports said Tuesday, as President Donald Trump said Seoul would buy 'billions of dollars' of US weapons.  ... After a summit in South Korea with his counterpart Moon Jae-In, Trump on Tuesday said Seoul would be buying a large amount of US weapons “whether it’s planes, whether it’s missiles, no matter what it is”.

“The strategic assets under discussion include a nuclear-powered submarine and a sophisticated surveillance asset,” the reports quoted a senior official of Moon’s office as saying. "We will have close consultations with the US about these two in the future,” the official was quoted as saying. 

****** 

Of course, China's envoys will tell DPRK generals that this is merely a Trump tactic to use a bargaining chip in negotiations with China which is entirely probable à la US-Taiwan arms deals. And whatever his generals hear from China, Kim will know and suspect his peasantry will hear. However, some DPRK's generals will have their doubts about how far Trump would go to arm South Korea. Since Kim must already expect defection among his top generals he will crack down (executions), which will make him appear more frightened than ever.  

Kim must continue to distract and befuddle his followers with domestic strife such as:

•  assassination of an alleged Kim (no doubt accused of plotting a regime takeover)

• executions of some token missile official who ineptly caused the delay in his pacific hydrogen bomb launch

• capture and executions of a South Korean spy cell (spotters and informers are already in North Korea)

Any combination of more than one of the above actions within 6 months will move our countdown 2 points closer as it would relect Kim's desperation at perceived panic level.

Trump's provocations are not over. Their impact has been calculated to escalate gradually.
 
PREDICTIONS
Remember, the more agitated and desperate for food and heat the peasants become this winter, the sooner Rocket Man becomes the "Un" Kim Jong-un.  Kim's time is running out. Western news has been covertly getting in, and if Kim survives another 12 months he wins  -- becoming almost invincible in a non-nuclear chess strategy as a formidible future nuclear threat.  This will not happen; either an internal coup takes him out, or he will disappear from public view forever after an ostensible visit to China, a hospital, or a vacation retreat.  

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Kim Jon Un Dictatorship Update

Background

Our Kim Dynasty countdown for last month had Rocket Man stumbling a stage closer to his nonexistence/disappearance and the end of the Kim dynasty at Stage 8. on M.E.'s 0-12 scale  (12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0).

OUR UPDATE

We no longer believe the Kim dynasty must necessarily end with Kim Jong-un's approaching disappearance. So for the moment Rocket Man is still at stage 8, but adding further desperation to the pressures being deftly racheted up by the U.S., its allies and the mainstream media are unsettling news for the Rocket Man. If  his reactive behavior pattern continues, as his military and North Korea's people have been assured, he will reach a point of no return in raising the ante of any continuing military credibility.  That, as his family has always been keenly aware is very bad for the confidence of his fawning generals much less his oppressed people.  

• North Korea could test hydrogen bomb over Pacific Ocean, says foreign minister days before our September coundown score.  

If Kim fails to do so now, he must distract his own followers with some domestic strife such as:

• assassination of an alleged Kim (no doubt accused of plotting a regime takeover)
• executions of some token missile official who ineptly caused the delay in his pacific hydrogen bomb launch 
• capture and executions of a South Korean spy cell (spotters and informers are already in North Korea)

Any combination of more than one of the above actions within 6 months will move our countdown 2 points as it would relect desperation at a panic level.

And finally, because Submarines are always silent and strange and their serious deployments or whereabouts are routinely unannounced, Kim just had more external pressure heaped upon his threatened hydrogen bomb launch:

10 OCT 17 | "The USS Michigan [SSGN-727], a nuclear-powered American submarine, will reportedly arrive in the South Korean port of Busan this weekend amid the ongoing escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, which resulted from Pyongyang's recent nuclear tests and the subsequent war of words between North Korea's leader and US President Trump. 

Following the submarine, the USS Ronald Reagan [CVN-76] aircraft carrier will also be dispatched to South Korea next week, Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported. "

The Chosun Ilbo is one of the major newspapers in South Korea. With a daily circulation of more than 1,800,000. 



  

Kim Dynasty Update: Desperation Visible Internally

BACKGROUND

Kim Jong-Un has been fthe latest figurehead in North Korea's declining Kim Dynasty since his father's death in 2011 as well as Supreme Commander of the Korean People's Army.
He is militarily controversial worldwide and will soon become deeply unpopular with the DPRK's cruelly oppressed citizens. Our previous 'Rocket Man'  coutdown  declared a 9 on our 12-point scale with 0 being the end of his and the Kim Dynasty's days in power.

UPDATE

Today, signs of Rocket Man's desperation, which have been clear outside of North Korea for some time now, may finally become clear to some of his cruelly oppressed citizen - volunteers inside their country. 

•  Thu, Sep 28, 2017 || North Korean TV Says 'Millions Volunteer' to Join the Army
  State TV released video of what it says are young people lining up 'to join and rejoin' the army. It said more than four million had volunteered.

•  Thur,Sep 28th 2017||  Kim Jong-Un releases propaganda video of North Korea 'blowing up' a US aircraft carrier as the dictator brands Trump a 'mad man' and warns US forces will be 'sent to the grave'

 PREDICTION

From now on, the more agitated and desperate for food and heat the ordinary Jim Jong Jangs become the sooner will Rocket Man become an Un Kim Jong-un. We see he hasnow stumbled one stage closer to nonexistence and the end of a dynasty at Stage 8. 

(12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0)

Submarines are always silent and strange.

What Kim Jong Un Knows is really at stake

BACKGROUND (Today 25 SEPT 17)

Provocation and Effect (Desperation)

North Korea's foreign minister accuses President Trump of declaring war after Trump said the regime "won't be around much longer." That gives the rogue regime "the right to shoot down U.S. strategic bombers even when they are not flying in North Korean airspace", Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters in New York.


The VISIBLE GAME

If North Korea attacks the U.S. military, China will standby as the U.S. retaliates. Naive U.S. citizens cringe in fear at such a horrible, though non-nuclear, prospect.  

The UNSEEN GAME

Members of North Korea's military have been preparing for a coup since before Jong Un's father died.  As Kim orders more unpopular executions to scare his military for any suspected disloyalty, as food stocks dwindle and oil supplies are tightly rationed this coming winter, a military coup will become more popular with ordinary citizens. His own actions have only sped the inevitable coup that Kim Jong Un has always feared. 

And "Rocket Man" [a Trump appellation] Kim fears South Korea has 'spotters' following his every movement, as well as spies in DPRK's Army.  By now Kim must assume that there has to be at least one Chinese informer among his leadership cabinet. 

PREDICTIONS

Trump's provocations are not over. Their impact has been calculated to escalate gradually. Kim's time is running out. Western news has been covertly getting in, and if Kim survives another 12 months he wins  -- becoming almost invincible in a non-nuclear chess strategy as a formidible future nuclear threat.  This will not happen; either an internal coup takes him out, or he will disappear from public view forever after an ostensible visit to China, a hospital, or a vacation retreat.  

The countdown for Rocket Man is at about this stage: 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0.  

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Kim Jong-Un v. Trump: The Dynamics and Statics

BACKGROUND DRAMA

Recent media drama centered around North Korea's mandatory celebration of its founding leader's 105th birthday with the ususl parade of military armanents and expectation of yet another nuclear test and/or missile launch.  The drama was conveniently described as a clash between two hardliners, Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump.  Kim even threatened nuclear devastation to South Korea, Japan and the U.S. mainland.  The media covered their entire week-long, fake news drama.

REALITY #1:   Would Vice President Pence visit the DMZ amid the hazardous strife portrayed by the news media? No, he conducted routine policy visits with our allies.

REALITY #2     "Why Did Trump's 'Armada' Sail in the Opposite Direction?" 

As a distraction? No.  To avoid provoking Kim to attack? Yes.

Are Kim's threats hollow? No.  Are Trump's warnings to Kim bluffs? Right now, who knows?

Will trump succeed in de-nuclearizing North Korea?  Yes.  How? The stage has now been set for a coup d'etat in North Korea after Kim loses major face with his military.  When will that happen?  As failures in his ballistic launch capabilities proliferate, which will only be quickened by his promise of frequent tests and launches.  No fortune tellers here, that is all on Kim. 

Kim's military recently boasted it can devestate the U.S. in its own way.  NK's populace are familiar with the boast. Should it prove hollow, Kim would be humiliated and high-ranking military officers will be capriciously executed.  Some already are not completely loyal to Kim and are ready to support a leader who does not import luxuries for his personal consumption as so many countrymen starve.  Some are also undercover spotters for South Korea, keeping regular tabs on movements of high-ranking officials. A very few of them are highly ambitious in their own right and have been awaiting a better opportunity to form a new government with help from mainland _ _ _ _ _.  

Kim Jong-un is the last in his dynasty. Wait and see things unfold against his regime.

Be patient, remember that executions in North Korea do not filter through global news without time for the North Korea public to thoroughly digest the internal cover stories that will result.   

We envision the loss of another North Korean submarine sometime sooner.

Submarines are always silent and strange. 

Faithful Readers Expected this "Cock a doodle coup" Play

Background

From Molten Eagle over a year ago .....  February 11, 2016

and Today April 11, 2017 ... "US Navy carrier strike group sets its sights on North Korea"

"That warship, the USS Carl Vinson, is the flagship of the Navy’s Carrier Strike Group 1, and often called "America's Favorite Aircraft Carrier." The strike group, established in 2009, includes the ship’s Carrier Air Wing 2, and embarked Destroyer Squadron 1 deployed with Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Champlain, as well as Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Michael Murphy and USS Wayne E. Meyer."  FoxNews

Now we would all like to know which SSNs are screening  for the Strike Group, which SSBN is patrolling the box, and which SSGN is already loitering undetected off the littorals.

Submarines are always silent and strange. So very few will ever have most of such answers!

But what can be told is that despite his boastful claims young Kim Jong-un is suddenly very, very worried about the loyalty of his military leaders and body guards.  The ideal goal of our U.S. strategy has been named "Cock a doodle coup" in deference to the tentative leadership of a certain cocky leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. 

Kim Jong-un is trapped by his own paranoia. Heeding the advice of his predecessors, he is desperate to reinforce his rule by executing an allegedly disloyal military officer of high rank.  Advice about threatening the U.S. will no longer avail.  And an actual attack against Japan, Guam, South Korea, or the Strike Force is likely not only to end his family dynasty, but his life as well.  What would you do?  Expect another nuclear "test".

 

Life on a Small North Korean Submarine

Background

Living in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is strictly regulated under a legal system based on the Prussian Legal System the Best (according to 19th c. Japan) and Communist legal theory. Credible facts about everyday life in North Korean have not flowed as freely as cheerful claims by its leaders.  Credible facts about the DPRK's military have been even more cloistered.  According to the CIA's The World Factbook [color emphasis mine], 18 is presumed to be the legal minimum age for compulsory military service; 16-17 is the presumed legal minimum age for voluntary service (2012).

We wonder what crewing may be like for North Korea's submarine sailors.  Intriguing clues are available from public sources outside of the DPRK in two rare cases that came to the attention of external authorities and news media.

Example One:  Penalty for participation in spy sub's failure

JUNE 27, 1998   9 North Koreans Dead in Submarine

SEOUL— The bodies of nine North Korean sailors and agents were discovered Friday inside a captured North Korean midget submarine, shot and killed in what South Korean officials called an apparent murder-suicide.

Officials said there were signs of a struggle inside the submarine, as four North Korean agents apparently shot themselves to death after first killing five sailors.

South Korean authorities also said there were indications that the vessel, which was captured after becoming entangled in a fisherman's net off the South Korean coast Monday, had been on a spy mission, leaving them divided about how much of an issue to make of this latest North Korean incursion. 

North Korea's Version of Events
The submarine sank as it was being towed into port, it was unclear if this was as a result of damage or a deliberate scuttling by the crew.^[3] On 23 June the Korean Central News Agency admitted that a submarine had been lost in a training accident.

Later, 
On 25 June the submarine was salvaged [not by North Korea] from a depth of approximately 100 feet (30 m) and the bodies of 9 crewmen were recovered, 5 sailors had apparently been murdered while 4 agents had apparently committed suicide.^[5] The presence of South Korean drinks suggested that the crew had completed an espionage mission.^[6] Log books found in the submarine showed that it had infiltrated South Korean waters on a number of previous occasions.^[7]  The bodies of the members of submarine crew were subsequently buried in the Cemetery for North Korean and Chinese Soldiers.^[8]
 

Example Two:  Death benefit to families of submariners 

March 11, 2016 - USNI NEWS |  U.S. Official: North Korean Submarine is Missing, Presumed Sunk

Subsequently, a South Korean news outlet has claimed the sub was sunk and "improved housing" awarded to the families of the sailors lost. (This news has subsequently been removed from the internet). Draw your own conclusions.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Sun Tzu Takes on the North Korea's Missing Sub

Background

The following script is from concluding dialogue in 1990's film  The Hunt for Red October ...


 Ambassador Andrei Lysenko:  "There is another matter... one I'm reluctant to..."

 Dr. Jeffrey Pelt:  "Please."

Ambassador Andrei Lysenko:  "One of our submarines, an Alfa, was last reported in the area of the Grand Banks. We have not heard from her for some time."


Dr. Jeffrey Pelt:  "Andrei, you've lost another submarine?"

The Current Reality Mix

In 2010 the ROK Navy corvette Cheonan was presumably torpedoed by a North Korean midget sub killing 46 sailors.  North Korea denied any responsibility for the sinking.

To have a better inkling of the reality afoot in the Sea of Japan these days, imagine Secretary of State John Kerry saying,  "Andrei, you've lost another submarine?"

The unconfessed loss of one of North Korea's vaunted sub fleet (more than 50 of which had swarmed last August in waters off South Korea) is hugely embarrassing for the Kim Jong Un regime.  The most innocent cause for his sunken sub (deplorable maintenance) can never be admitted to DPRK's populace.  A public show of force may only be as good as its weakest link. So the North Korean public will suspect foreign foul play and Kim will play along. But what else is possible?

• Would South Korea wish to sink a Nork sub in retaliation for the Cheonan incident?  Since the incident, the South Korean government has been reluctant to engage in further diplomacy with North Korea over disputes such as North Korea's nuclear weapons program.  On 2 May, it was reported that South Korea's naval minister had vowed "retaliation" against those responsible.  And at a televised funeral for Cheonan's dead crew members, Admiral Kim Sung-chan stated, "We will not sit back and watch whoever caused this pain for our people. We will hunt them down and make them pay a bigger price."  

• Would Russia (think of the Ukraine intrusion). who recently condemned North Korea's 'nuclear bomb test' as a 'threat to national security' stoop to such mischief if it could be carried out anonymously? 

Might other players have such motivations? Yes, and some surprises among them.

• China - North Korea has become China's ostensibly uncooperative proxy.  Once useful as its bad-boy proxy, the succession of dictators in the DPRK has become increasingly incorrigible and transparently useless to China (which has no military base there).  A sunken sub just might be the appropriate reminder for an arrogant, life of luxury in an impoverished regime leader to remember who ultimately is boss. About Sun Tzu here.

•  North Korean military leader -  Due to incidents like Gangneun In 1996:  "The accident by itself was the result of a North Korean submarine running aground on the South Korean coast. The mysterious part, however, was that the submarine was initially intended to collect North Korean commandos who were collecting intelligence in the South.
  
  The commandos are said to have executed the submarine crew for their mistake, and were killed by the South Korean military, with one captured, while trying to exfiltrate to the North. After the incident, South Korea's consul in Vladivostok was killed in a mysterious poisoning, which was said to have been done by the same poison as the kind found inside the submarine."

• Japan - for much needed practice

• U.S. -  Prior to the Obama administration, such espionage might have been expected.  Although provocations certainly exist, the act is considered highly unlikely.

• Who or what was behind the missing (for 2 years) MH-370? Parts are being forensically examined for quite a long time.  Was more foul play afoot there, as well?  Who, then?

 Submarines are always silent and strange.