Kim Jong-Un v. Trump: The Dynamics and Statics

BACKGROUND DRAMA

Recent media drama centered around North Korea's mandatory celebration of its founding leader's 105th birthday with the ususl parade of military armanents and expectation of yet another nuclear test and/or missile launch.  The drama was conveniently described as a clash between two hardliners, Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump.  Kim even threatened nuclear devastation to South Korea, Japan and the U.S. mainland.  The media covered their entire week-long, fake news drama.

REALITY #1:   Would Vice President Pence visit the DMZ amid the hazardous strife portrayed by the news media? No, he conducted routine policy visits with our allies.

REALITY #2     "Why Did Trump's 'Armada' Sail in the Opposite Direction?" 

As a distraction? No.  To avoid provoking Kim to attack? Yes.

Are Kim's threats hollow? No.  Are Trump's warnings to Kim bluffs? Right now, who knows?

Will trump succeed in de-nuclearizing North Korea?  Yes.  How? The stage has now been set for a coup d'etat in North Korea after Kim loses major face with his military.  When will that happen?  As failures in his ballistic launch capabilities proliferate, which will only be quickened by his promise of frequent tests and launches.  No fortune tellers here, that is all on Kim. 

Kim's military recently boasted it can devestate the U.S. in its own way.  NK's populace are familiar with the boast. Should it prove hollow, Kim would be humiliated and high-ranking military officers will be capriciously executed.  Some already are not completely loyal to Kim and are ready to support a leader who does not import luxuries for his personal consumption as so many countrymen starve.  Some are also undercover spotters for South Korea, keeping regular tabs on movements of high-ranking officials. A very few of them are highly ambitious in their own right and have been awaiting a better opportunity to form a new government with help from mainland _ _ _ _ _.  

Kim Jong-un is the last in his dynasty. Wait and see things unfold against his regime.

Be patient, remember that executions in North Korea do not filter through global news without time for the North Korea public to thoroughly digest the internal cover stories that will result.   

We envision the loss of another North Korean submarine sometime sooner.

Submarines are always silent and strange. 

A Desperate Kim Jong-un's Truly Darkest Fear

Background

Saddam Hussein (age 69 ) despite his wish to be shot with more dignity was executed by hanging December 30, 2006.  His hanging took place at Camp Justice ( aka Camp Al-Adala ) a joint Iraqi-American military base in Baghdad. The execution was captured on mobile phone video and circulated worldwide via the internet. 

Just under 5 years later, Kim was officially declared supreme leader of North Korea  on 28 December 2011.  Though Kim Jong Un's age is unverified he is believed to have been the youngest modern-world head of state when he took power. 

  "A criminal? True. A killer? True. A butcher? True. 

... He committed countless crimes, and he deserved to be hanged a thousand times, live again, and be hanged again." - Dr. Mowaffak al-Rubaie,  Member of the Iraqi Governing Council appointed National Security Advisor by the Coalition Provisional Authority; Man who oversaw Saddam Hussein's hanging.

What has always made Kim Jong-un a dangerous leader are his family's dynastic protocols for securing absolute power by ruling with an iron hand: Demonstrate authority by compassionless executions of both low ranking citizens and high ranking officials (including relatives);  Maintain militaristic fervor by provoking formidable antagonists.

If anything, young Kim Jong-un has been overbearing in performance of his family's protocols.  And finally, he is confronted by a coalition of formidable adversaries.

Now, Kim's back is literally hrown against a wall.  If he succumbs to external pressure, he looks weak to his populace, inviting inevitable disloyalty and competition for the leadership of North Korea.  Moreover, his family protocols will become transparently ineffective for future use.   If  he tests more ballistic weaponry or attacks a U.S. protected adversary he tempts the same undignified fate as the late Sadaam dynasty. 

His options are severely limited and his ultimate choice would be very interesting, if an internal coup does not first take place in North Korea.  The coup in store is known outside the DPRK as the 'Cock a doodle coup'.

Discounting a 'Cock a doodle coup' Kim's desperate choices are limited to silly options, including:  

VERY UNLIKELY  |           |           |          |           |   VERY  LIKELY

1. Execute troublemakers, without inciting political wrath and opposition. 
2. Disappear for a while (e.g. for medical treatment ).   
3. Have DPRK submarine sink with all hands. (deflects news angle) 
4. Sink a cruise ship or oil tanker and claim adversary did it.  
5. Provoke a new, non-U.S.-protected adversary.  Who?  

 Submarines are always silent and strange.
 

 

Faithful Readers Expected this "Cock a doodle coup" Play

Background

From Molten Eagle over a year ago .....  February 11, 2016

and Today April 11, 2017 ... "US Navy carrier strike group sets its sights on North Korea"

"That warship, the USS Carl Vinson, is the flagship of the Navy’s Carrier Strike Group 1, and often called "America's Favorite Aircraft Carrier." The strike group, established in 2009, includes the ship’s Carrier Air Wing 2, and embarked Destroyer Squadron 1 deployed with Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Champlain, as well as Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Michael Murphy and USS Wayne E. Meyer."  FoxNews

Now we would all like to know which SSNs are screening  for the Strike Group, which SSBN is patrolling the box, and which SSGN is already loitering undetected off the littorals.

Submarines are always silent and strange. So very few will ever have most of such answers!

But what can be told is that despite his boastful claims young Kim Jong-un is suddenly very, very worried about the loyalty of his military leaders and body guards.  The ideal goal of our U.S. strategy has been named "Cock a doodle coup" in deference to the tentative leadership of a certain cocky leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. 

Kim Jong-un is trapped by his own paranoia. Heeding the advice of his predecessors, he is desperate to reinforce his rule by executing an allegedly disloyal military officer of high rank.  Advice about threatening the U.S. will no longer avail.  And an actual attack against Japan, Guam, South Korea, or the Strike Force is likely not only to end his family dynasty, but his life as well.  What would you do?  Expect another nuclear "test".

 

Most Prophetic Submarine Quotation of the 21st Century ( Yet )?

Background 

On 9 February, the USS Greeneville, a U.S. Navy nuclear-powered attack submarine, prepared to depart Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, to conduct a public relations mission under the USN's Distinguished Visitor Embarkation program.  For this mission [set up during the final days of Pres. Clinton's final term], USS Greeneville would carry 16 civilian Distinguished Visitors: eight CEOs with six of their spouses; and a free-lance sports writer, with his spouse. ^[2]   

A Navy investigation found the USS Greenville's captain had rushed through mandatory safety procedures while demonstrating an emergency surfacing drill for the benefit of civilians touring the submarine. The report said the captain didn't want the submarine to be late returning to Pearl Harbor with the 16 guests.  source

 * * * * * 

Revealing but Unrealistic?

"In the seas below them, the submarine USS Greeneville was setting up for a emergency blow to the surface. The crew was in the final steps of determining if it was safe for the rapid ascent to the surface.

As a final check, the submarine conducted a visual search using the periscope. According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) investigation, while an officer was in the midst of his search routine, the captain bumped him off the periscope and quickly completed the search,  precluding independent verification that it was safe." -  David Marquet, CAPT, (USN-ret.)  28-year veteran of US Submarine Force. Commanded nuclear submarine USS Santa Fe; author of  Turn the Ship Around; Quoted from Forbes.com, April 9/2017, "Avoid Disastrous Decisions With These Four Meeting Practices" by David Marquet.
Leadership Tips From A Nuclear Submarine Commander.

Compounding Pressures in Retrospect

Why was this "PR mission" really scheduled, and who were those Distinguished Visitors? Eight years after the Ehime Maru Tragedy, the main purpose of the "VIP" PR mission now comes to light.  In 2009, during the first months of Obama's Presidency, his NavySecretary, Ray Mabus, began the process of permitting females to serve on submarines. [71] Note 
One notes that of the 16 distinguished visitors aboard Greeneville at least 7 were females.

The combination of politically invited guests including including 7 females allowed usual standard operating procedures to become unusually upset among Greeneville's well-trained and seasoned crew.  Everything from Informal communication language, normal etiquette, and  routine  operations suddenly had to be performed to impress the visitors favorably.
[Political pressure].

Such stresses were compounded by the presence and keen monitoring [Performance pressure] of Navy Captain Robert L. Brandhuber, Chief of Staff for the commander of the submarine component of the United States Pacific Fleet, who also noted that the Control Room was unusually crowded with people [Interference pressure].

 The DVs were scheduled to be served lunch in two sittings, first from 10:30 to 11:30 and the second from 11:30 to 12:30. After lunch, the submarine was to display its operational abilities and then return the DVs to Pearl Harbor for a reception that was scheduled to begin at 14:30. The lunch service ran late, and other Greeneville officers repeatedly reminded Waddle that the submarine needed to begin its demonstration maneuvers or it would be late back to port  [Time pressure].

Rear Adm. Charles Griffiths Jr., chief naval investigator into the crash, testified ... that, because lunch with the civilians took longer than scheduled, the Greeneville's captain performed certain safety procedures faster than was normal practice. One periscope check to make sure the surface was clear of other vessels took only 80 seconds, rather than the usual three or more minutes.

But Brandhuber did not step in to override the captain's orders, Griffiths said, because Brandhuber "specifically told me he did not see any action that met the threshold" for such a step. Subsequently, both Brandhuber and the Greenville's CO, Waddle, good career officers, were ousted from the Navy.

The collision was avoidable.  Few would dare quibble with the Naval inquiry's findings nor penalties for an avoidable tragedy.  Some obvious accountability is still overlooked in M.E.'s opinion. A nuclear fast attack submarine is such a highly complex platform that very few men ever demonstrate enough proficiency to command one.  

Adding, time, interference and political pressures for cosmetic (PR) purposes to an arduous job is equally unnecessary and ill-considered by civilians atop the chain of command unless they specifically authorize the attendant risk.  Few politicians present much less understand honest  risk:reward ratios.  And few senior officers feel comfortable risking promotion or pension by pushing back more effectively.  So, the avoidable loss of another SSN with crew becomes politically more inevitable.

Submarines are always silent and strange.