Wednesday, April 12, 2017

A Desperate Kim Jong-un's Truly Darkest Fear

Background

Saddam Hussein (age 69 ) despite his wish to be shot with more dignity was executed by hanging December 30, 2006.  His hanging took place at Camp Justice ( aka Camp Al-Adala ) a joint Iraqi-American military base in Baghdad. The execution was captured on mobile phone video and circulated worldwide via the internet. 

Just under 5 years later, Kim was officially declared supreme leader of North Korea  on 28 December 2011.  Though Kim Jong Un's age is unverified he is believed to have been the youngest modern-world head of state when he took power. 

  "A criminal? True. A killer? True. A butcher? True. 

... He committed countless crimes, and he deserved to be hanged a thousand times, live again, and be hanged again." - Dr. Mowaffak al-RubaieMember of the Iraqi Governing Council appointed National Security Advisor by the Coalition Provisional Authority; Man who oversaw Saddam Hussein's hanging.

What has always made Kim Jong-un a dangerous leader are his family's dynastic protocols for securing absolute power by ruling with an iron hand: Demonstrate authority by compassionless executions of both low ranking citizens and high ranking officials (including relatives);  Maintain militaristic fervor by provoking formidable antagonists.

If anything, young Kim Jong-un has been overbearing in performance of his family's protocols.  And finally, he is confronted by a coalition of formidable adversaries.

Now, Kim's back is literally hrown against a wall.  If he succumbs to external pressure, he looks weak to his populace, inviting inevitable disloyalty and competition for the leadership of North Korea.  Moreover, his family protocols will become transparently ineffective for future use.   If  he tests more ballistic weaponry or attacks a U.S. protected adversary he tempts the same undignified fate as the late Sadaam dynasty

His options are severely limited and his ultimate choice would be very interesting, if an internal coup does not first take place in North Korea.  The coup in store is known outside the DPRK as the 'Cock a doodle coup'.

Discounting a 'Cock a doodle coup' Kim's desperate choices are limited to silly options, including:  

VERY UNLIKELY  |           |           |          |           |   VERY  LIKELY

  1. Execute troublemakers, without inciting political wrath and opposition
  2. Disappear for a while (e.g. for medical treatment ) 
  3. Have DPRK submarine sink with all hands. (deflects news angle) 
  4. Sink a cruise ship or oil tanker and claim adversary did it.  
  5. Provoke a new, non-U.S.-protected adversary.  Who?  
 Submarines are always silent and strange.
 

 

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