Subliminal Message from the DC 'Establishment'

Background

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a Washington, D.C. think tank  founded in 1962, by Admiral Arleigh Burke and David Abshire, at the height of the Cold War. Current CSIS chairman Sam Nunn and Donald B. Marron have ties to the Concord Coalition, a non-profit co-founded by Peter G. Peterson. 

The Los Angeles Times has dubbed Mr. Peterson "the most influential billionaire business figure in national politics. . . . He isn't content merely to express concern about the federal deficit. His particular targets are Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which he calls 'entitlement' programs and which he wants to cut back in a manner that would strike deeply at the middle class."^[2]

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M.E. NOTE:  Interestingly, Sen. John McCain, who has often been called a warmonger by mainstream media, is on CSIS's Middle East task force.  Another war might certainly press Mr. Peterson's (the establishment's) drive to slash Social Security benefits, would not we expect?  

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The Subliminal Message: 

Well then, do other readers see a subliminal 'dead duck' in the title graphic of this recently published CSIS video? If not, compare the images below.

In M.E.'s opinion, President Trump is no warmonger.  He can and will covertly support efforts now underway to end the Kim dynasty with the mysterious disappearance of Kim Jong-un during an an unannounced state visit, unscheduled vacation, sudden hospitalization, private daliance, etc.

Submarines are always silent and strange.




 

Kim Jong-Un v. Trump: The Dynamics and Statics

BACKGROUND DRAMA

Recent media drama centered around North Korea's mandatory celebration of its founding leader's 105th birthday with the ususl parade of military armanents and expectation of yet another nuclear test and/or missile launch.  The drama was conveniently described as a clash between two hardliners, Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump.  Kim even threatened nuclear devastation to South Korea, Japan and the U.S. mainland.  The media covered their entire week-long, fake news drama.

REALITY #1:   Would Vice President Pence visit the DMZ amid the hazardous strife portrayed by the news media? No, he conducted routine policy visits with our allies.

REALITY #2     "Why Did Trump's 'Armada' Sail in the Opposite Direction?" 

As a distraction? No.  To avoid provoking Kim to attack? Yes.

Are Kim's threats hollow? No.  Are Trump's warnings to Kim bluffs? Right now, who knows?

Will trump succeed in de-nuclearizing North Korea?  Yes.  How? The stage has now been set for a coup d'etat in North Korea after Kim loses major face with his military.  When will that happen?  As failures in his ballistic launch capabilities proliferate, which will only be quickened by his promise of frequent tests and launches.  No fortune tellers here, that is all on Kim. 

Kim's military recently boasted it can devestate the U.S. in its own way.  NK's populace are familiar with the boast. Should it prove hollow, Kim would be humiliated and high-ranking military officers will be capriciously executed.  Some already are not completely loyal to Kim and are ready to support a leader who does not import luxuries for his personal consumption as so many countrymen starve.  Some are also undercover spotters for South Korea, keeping regular tabs on movements of high-ranking officials. A very few of them are highly ambitious in their own right and have been awaiting a better opportunity to form a new government with help from mainland _ _ _ _ _.  

Kim Jong-un is the last in his dynasty. Wait and see things unfold against his regime.

Be patient, remember that executions in North Korea do not filter through global news without time for the North Korea public to thoroughly digest the internal cover stories that will result.   

We envision the loss of another North Korean submarine sometime sooner.

Submarines are always silent and strange. 

Faithful Readers Expected this "Cock a doodle coup" Play

Background

From Molten Eagle over a year ago .....  February 11, 2016

and Today April 11, 2017 ... "US Navy carrier strike group sets its sights on North Korea"

"That warship, the USS Carl Vinson, is the flagship of the Navy’s Carrier Strike Group 1, and often called "America's Favorite Aircraft Carrier." The strike group, established in 2009, includes the ship’s Carrier Air Wing 2, and embarked Destroyer Squadron 1 deployed with Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Champlain, as well as Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Michael Murphy and USS Wayne E. Meyer."  FoxNews

Now we would all like to know which SSNs are screening  for the Strike Group, which SSBN is patrolling the box, and which SSGN is already loitering undetected off the littorals.

Submarines are always silent and strange. So very few will ever have most of such answers!

But what can be told is that despite his boastful claims young Kim Jong-un is suddenly very, very worried about the loyalty of his military leaders and body guards.  The ideal goal of our U.S. strategy has been named "Cock a doodle coup" in deference to the tentative leadership of a certain cocky leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. 

Kim Jong-un is trapped by his own paranoia. Heeding the advice of his predecessors, he is desperate to reinforce his rule by executing an allegedly disloyal military officer of high rank.  Advice about threatening the U.S. will no longer avail.  And an actual attack against Japan, Guam, South Korea, or the Strike Force is likely not only to end his family dynasty, but his life as well.  What would you do?  Expect another nuclear "test".

 

Sun Tzu Takes on the North Korea's Missing Sub

Background

The following script is from concluding dialogue in 1990's film  The Hunt for Red October ...


 Ambassador Andrei Lysenko:  "There is another matter... one I'm reluctant to..."

 Dr. Jeffrey Pelt:  "Please."

Ambassador Andrei Lysenko:  "One of our submarines, an Alfa, was last reported in the area of the Grand Banks. We have not heard from her for some time."


Dr. Jeffrey Pelt:  "Andrei, you've lost another submarine?"

The Current Reality Mix

In 2010 the ROK Navy corvette Cheonan was presumably torpedoed by a North Korean midget sub killing 46 sailors.  North Korea denied any responsibility for the sinking.

To have a better inkling of the reality afoot in the Sea of Japan these days, imagine Secretary of State John Kerry saying,  "Andrei, you've lost another submarine?"

The unconfessed loss of one of North Korea's vaunted sub fleet (more than 50 of which had swarmed last August in waters off South Korea) is hugely embarrassing for the Kim Jong Un regime.  The most innocent cause for his sunken sub (deplorable maintenance) can never be admitted to DPRK's populace.  A public show of force may only be as good as its weakest link. So the North Korean public will suspect foreign foul play and Kim will play along. But what else is possible?

• Would South Korea wish to sink a Nork sub in retaliation for the Cheonan incident?  Since the incident, the South Korean government has been reluctant to engage in further diplomacy with North Korea over disputes such as North Korea's nuclear weapons program.  On 2 May, it was reported that South Korea's naval minister had vowed "retaliation" against those responsible.  And at a televised funeral for Cheonan's dead crew members, Admiral Kim Sung-chan stated, "We will not sit back and watch whoever caused this pain for our people. We will hunt them down and make them pay a bigger price."  

• Would Russia (think of the Ukraine intrusion). who recently condemned North Korea's 'nuclear bomb test' as a 'threat to national security' stoop to such mischief if it could be carried out anonymously? 

Might other players have such motivations? Yes, and some surprises among them.

• China - North Korea has become China's ostensibly uncooperative proxy.  Once useful as its bad-boy proxy, the succession of dictators in the DPRK has become increasingly incorrigible and transparently useless to China (which has no military base there).  A sunken sub just might be the appropriate reminder for an arrogant, life of luxury in an impoverished regime leader to remember who ultimately is boss. About Sun Tzu here.

•  North Korean military leader -  Due to incidents like Gangneun In 1996:  "The accident by itself was the result of a North Korean submarine running aground on the South Korean coast. The mysterious part, however, was that the submarine was initially intended to collect North Korean commandos who were collecting intelligence in the South.
  
  The commandos are said to have executed the submarine crew for their mistake, and were killed by the South Korean military, with one captured, while trying to exfiltrate to the North. After the incident, South Korea's consul in Vladivostok was killed in a mysterious poisoning, which was said to have been done by the same poison as the kind found inside the submarine."

• Japan - for much needed practice

• U.S. -  Prior to the Obama administration, such espionage might have been expected.  Although provocations certainly exist, the act is considered highly unlikely.

• Who or what was behind the missing (for 2 years) MH-370? Parts are being forensically examined for quite a long time.  Was more foul play afoot there, as well?  Who, then?

 Submarines are always silent and strange.

 

UPDATE: Brazil's Coming Used Submarine Sale

BACKGROUND (from August 28, 2009)

Brazil intended to build five submarines by 2021 with France (Scorpene class subs), of which one would be nuclear. Construction was slated to commence in 2016.

The original $160M estimate (for the n-sub) to $9.5 billion U.S. dollars for all, will be paid in 2026, five years after launch. [Former President Luiz Inacio da Silva's government agreed in 2008 to purchase five submarines, including a nuclear-powered one, from France for 6.7 billion euros].

If Hugo Chavez is still in power, Venezueula would like to buy 1 or 2, depending upon condition, and immediately sell the HDW 209 to Iran. Ahmadinejad (if still in power) plans to upgrade the HDW 209 using Russian assistance.

UPDATES

Brazilian police to probe nuclear submarine programme - Folha - Reuters, TodaySAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazilian federal police are investigating potential irregularities in a military programme that aims to build a nuclear-powered submarine in partnership with France by 2023, newspaper Folha de S. Paulo reported on Wednesday.

The investigation that began in March of 2014 has jailed some of Brazil's most senior engineering executives and caused Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as Petrobras is formally known, to write off more than $2 billion in corruption-related losses. 

Dozens of lawmakers, mostly from President Dilma Rousseff's governing coalition, have also been implicated for allegedly taking bribes in the kickback scheme, which has spiralled into Brazil's largest-ever corruption scandal.

The 7.8 billion reais ($3.95 billion) program will turn out the first conventional submarine in 2015 and the nuclear-powered submarine will be commissioned in 2023 and enter operation in 2025, the Brazilian Navy said. -  Mar 1, 2013    

 [Now, even these June 24th 2015 (last month's) estimates are unlikely]:
The first Scorpene-class vessel is expected to be completed by 2016 and to be commissioned in 2018, while the other three SSKs are scheduled for completion in 2022. The construction of the first SSN is planned to end in 2023 with entry into service slated for 2025.  - June 24, 2015
Hugo Chavez is out of power, and Venezueula can no longer afford to buy 1 or 2 of Brazil's existing sub fleet (four Tupi-class and one HDW Type 209 subs) and immediately sell the HDW 209 to Iran, which probably had planned to upgrade the HDW 209 using Russian assistance. Now, Brazil may have to lease the Type 209 to Kim Jong-un.  [Sure, that is what will happen, NOT!]


Submarines are always silent and strange.

Quote of the Month 13 NOV 2013

Background

April 2013
"It only takes being wrong once and I don't want to be the secretary of defense that was wrong once,” Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said on April 4, explaining why the military deployed missile batteries in Guam as a defensive measure against North Korea.

Nov 4, 2013
(Reuters) - North Korea sailors killed when ship sinks during 'combat duties'
At least 19 North Korean sailors were killed when a naval vessel sank during "combat duties" off the east coast last month, state media said, a rare admission by the impoverished and reclusive country.  

Nov 4, 2013
(NYT)  North Korean Sailors Reported Killed in October Sinking; South Says There Was No Clash
SEOUL, South Korea — A North Korean naval vessel sank last month, killing an unspecified number of sailors, according to North and South Korean news media.

Nov 5, 2013  - Type 037-class submarine chaser (Losses) Wikipedia
On October 13, 2013, North Korean submarine chaser No. 233 was lost off Wonsan with the loss of at least nineteen of her crew. She may have been in collision with another Korean People's Navy ship.[2][3][4]

Nov 12, 2013
(Baltic Review) North Korea: Our submarine has sunk [color emphasis added]
According to the photos that the media presented, it is seen how the leader goes among more than 12 tombstones of the submarine team ‘chasing submarine number 233’. It can be seen that the date when the submarine sunk is October 13th and the pictures of the sailors with their names. According to the Korean Central News Agency of DPRK, the submarine sunk during a military operation.

According to ynet.co.il, the submarine has been built at the early 60th of the previous decade, and the age of the submarine probably was the main factor for the accident.

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Do we trust dictator Kim Jong-un's North Korean news outlets?  South Korea's, Reuters, New York Times, Baltic News, or none of the above?  Chuck Hagel must know the truth by now, but that must be classified.  Could it really have been a lost submarine?  Which brings up, today's sarcastic quotation...

Quote of the Month

“Never trust a politician. If you want to trust a politician go to live in North Korea, and line up and applaud them and say ‘What a marvellous job, Kim Jong Un!’ - or whatever Kim is currently occupying.” - Eric Jack Pickles,  Move to North Korea if you want to trust politicians, Pickles says, The UK Telegraph, 13 NOV 2013.  (Mr. Pickles is United Kingdom Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, a Cabinet position.)

Submarines are always silent and strange.