Strange Submarine News and Quote of the Week (14 JUN 16)

- 1 -

Recall Sweden's 2014 Russian submarine hunt:  BBC's 60 second video Review

Molten Eagle speculation had remained:  It is more likely, in our experience, that a much needed Swedish Military training excercise, a PR recruiting effort, or a combination of both, have been conducted with renewed world attention.      and now we learn...

Today's [June 13, 2016] NEWS UPDATE indicates we appear to have been correct all along:
"A sonar signature, which Swedish military claimed to be crucial evidence of a foreign submarine’s presence near Stockholm during the 2014 hunt, came from a 'Swedish object,' the country’s defense minister has admitted.

Peter Hultqvist would not go into details about the source of the signal, but said the military reconsidered their assessment of its nature in September 2015, he told Sveriges Radio."  {The Sveriges Radio AB Swedish Language article is consistent}

- 2 -

Sub-Ocean Geophysical Catastrophe (Pick the more likely story)   

February 13, 2016 - CNN  | The quake-maker you've never heard of: Cascadia

• The Cascadia is capable of delivering a 9.0-magnitude quake. The fault can deliver a quake with 30 times more energy than the more famous San Andreas 

• The Cascadia runs from British Columbia's Vancouver Island California's Cape Mendocino

• "...and then it generates a tsunami at the same time, which the side-by-side motion of the San Andreas can't do." - Prof. Chris Goldfinger, Oregon State University.

June 13, 2016 - PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) | Robot submarine streams live from ocean off Oregon coast
A robot submarine is roaming around the ocean floor off the Oregon Coast in an effort to detect any geological activity underground, and researchers are offering a live stream of the underwater view.  The mission off the Pacific Northwest is intended to find “methane seeps,” where the natural greenhouse gas is released from the ocean floor along the Cascadia subduction.
 
Another Russian exploration to locate ideal detonation sites to trigger earthquakes, or innocent scientific curiosity? Hint: See research efforts (Dr. Robert Ballard and the Corps of Exploration)   

- 3 - 

June 2016 | theatlantic.com  GPS Doesn't Work Underwater
So the U.S. Navy is developing a new kind of system—built specifically for drone submarines.

POSYDON wants to install acoustic speakers in buoys throughout the ocean, where they will broadcast the time like GPS satellites. “They will be heard across very, very wide swaths of ocean,” he told me. “And now our underwater vehicles will be able to listen to those acoustic signals and measure the time difference of arrivals of each one of them.”

There’s one big problem. GPS radio signals are electromagnetic waves, so they move at the speed of light—always, through any atmospheric medium. This makes it extremely straightforward to back-compute the location of a beacon from its signal.  

M.E. Comment: Would not laser emissions from orbiting satellites provide faster, broader coverage?  

- 4 -

May 18, 2016 - Military Times | CHEYENNE, Wyo. Tribute to a Navy vet served on captured German WWII sub

Toward the war's end, one of these U-boats, U-858, was sent to wreak havoc along the east coast of the United States. But two weeks after Hitler's suicide, on May 14, 1945, U-858 became the first Nazi submarine to surrender to U.S. forces.

It's a boat that Chuck Kline remembers well. That's because, for nine months after its surrender, Kline served aboard U-858.

Kline, now 93, is one of a dwindling number of American sailors who served aboard submarines during World War II, and the last to come from Wyoming. (more)

Submarines are always silent and strange.

The Cake Icing for Australia's Submarine Selection

Background 

Aside from submarine performance criteria, shifted political winds and related labor participation mandate for domestic build economics, was there another, especially enticing incententive, for selecting DCNS?  Quite possibly .... Here are some leading opinions.

Headlines

Consider 5 excerpts from some recently published opinions [color emphasis mine]:

May 6, 2016  |  Japan's Failed Australian Submarine Bid: Is America at Fault?
"The widely understood sticking point for the European bids, namely U.S. reluctance to share the details of its AN/BYG-1 Combat Management System with European firms has evaporated. President Obama is reported to have indicated as much to Prime Minister Turnbull, with a “senior source” suggesting that there would be no implications for the alliance, no matter which bidder won.  ... If an overture to Pyongyang is in the offing, with China, South Korea, and Japan onside, was the scuttling of the Japanese submarine bid part of the price, unbeknownst to Japan until very recently of course? All it would have taken, as the French bid which promises a full Australian-based build is both politically and economically attractive to the Australian government, was the hint that “Option J” was no longer necessarily an American preference."  - Zac Rogers in The National Interest
 
May 6, 2016 | Australia’s Submarine Superiority: Strange Strategies and Overspending
"Given Australia’s relatively benign strategic environment, the very high projected cost for the 12 Shortfin Barracuda boats is probably not justified, especially since the primary practical missions of the submarine fleet will be covert operations and intelligence collection.  ...  The country probably needs a regionally superior cyber-enabled and balanced military force across all services before it needs a force of 12 submarines. We can expect that the Australian government will come to see that. In the absence of a direct military threat to the Australian mainland, the projected submarine spend of A$50 billion is almost certainly unsustainable in political terms. The eventual build through the 2020s and 2030s of new Australian submarines will almost certainly be closer to six boats than 12." - Greg Austin, in The Diplomat
 
May 10, 2016 |  Why DSCNS Won - Some reasons not yet covered in the media.
"It still needs to be said that   TKMS can offer no nuclear option   if Australia changes its mind and (say, in 2025) actually wants "regionally superior" submarines, especially if China and/or Putin become threatening. - this might mean Australia would want the Barracuda SSN for the first batch of 6 (2030 - 2040) and/or for a second batch of 6 (2040 -2050) Nuclear Barracuda option for second batch." - Peter Coates in Submarine matters
 
May 11, 2016 |  Superannuation change means that savers can no longer trust governments 
 [see "Submarine facts"]
"The submarine program is the most complex defence procurement ever undertaken in this country. The commercial discussions will require the Defence Department to negotiate a number of contractual arrangements to ensure we get the right capability while maximising Australian industry involvement. Once we conclude negotiations with DCNS and select a combat system integrator, work to design the new submarine and combat system will begin in Adelaide this year, not sometime after 2019.   ...  Most disappointingly, Gottliebsen repeats the incorrect claim that the government selected DCNS of France as the preferred partner to enable nuclear propulsion for the future submarine, despite being advised that this is not the case after he incorrectly reported the same thing last week." -  Marise Payne, Minister for Defence, Canberra, ACT in The Australian.com
 
May 11, 2016 |  Should we rush to smooth Japan's ruffled feathers?
"We must be realistic about the challenges posed by China's behaviour, particularly in the South China Sea. We should forthrightly tell Beijing that continued aggression could, eventually, result in the formation of anti-China alliance. But we should not be eager to reach this outcome. For now, closer defence ties between Japan and Australia are likely to worsen, not improve, security in Asia." - Iain Henry, PhD candidate at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University's Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs. in The Sydney Morning Herald

Submarines are always silent and strange 

Submarine Quote of January 2016

Background

UPDATE 27 JAN 2016: "Replacing the ageing Vanguard-class submarine fleet - the only underwater vessels capable of carrying nuclear warheads - is expected to cost £31billion over 30 years -"  MAL-JOURNALISM source  (nuclear tipped torpedoes obviously carry nuclear warheads, too).

Why Journalists Get so much Wrong - The Problem and the Fix (2011) 

Professional journalists* (paid writers) rarely consider much less comply with M.E.'s obvious best practices of reporting:
1) Either possess expertise in matters upon which you, the journalist, report facts to readers, or disclose your inexpertise.
2) Report contrary assessments by dissenting experts when topics are controversial.
3) Never write an opinion piece without related education and experience that sets you apart from uneducated, inexperienced readers. 

Submarine Mal-Journalism (2008) 

Submarine Quote of the Month

[color emphasis added]
Tel Aviv — With Israel’s flag flapping over the country’s newest piece of military hardware, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu descended very carefully into the nuclear submarine INS Rahav at its inaugural ceremony this month in Haifa.

.....The Jewish state has for years also been modernizing and expanding its fleet of nuclear submarines, which are seen mainly as a deterrent to a long-range Iranian missile strike on Israel, but are also capable of directing firepower at militants around the Mediterranean basin. - "Facing threats and opportunity, Israel forges Mediterranean alliance" - by Joshua Mitnick,  The Christian Science Monitor, Jan. 25, 2016.

----------------------------------------

Really, is INS Rahav a nuclear sub?  Hardly, it is an Israeli Dolphin 2-class, diesel-electric (non-nuclear sub).  Did the writer and editors flub such a fundamental propulsion methodology or do they imply that INS Rahav is capable of transporting nuclear weapons?  It is capable! --- Other operational diesel-electric subs can transport and fire nuclear arms, and even during the Cold War a few Russian commanding officers now admit their diesel subs had carried them.

Bottom line (who else smells censorship?):  The general public views possession of nuclear propulsed submarines as a mark of technological distinction, while the general public currently views owners of nuclear weaponry with some fear, loathing, and suspicion.  "Israel neither confirms nor denies its widely accepted possession of a nuclear arsenal."  - source

Submarines are always silent and strange. 

 

Wow! SUBMARINE scuttlebutt leaks EU Military Arrangements?

[color emphasis added - Molten Eagle]

Background

 (1)

"Article 42 of the [1992 Maastricht Treaty] Treaty on European Union provides for substantial military integration within the institutional framework of the union. Complete integration is an option that requires unanimity in the European Council of heads of state or government. For now it remains politically gridlocked considering the critical stance of the United Kingdom in particular.

Article 42 does also provide for a permanent structured cooperation between the armed forces of a subset of member states. As of 2015 this option has not been used, despite calls by prominent leaders such as former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, former Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini and former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt for a common defence for the Union. However the debate has intensified by the standoff between the EU and Russia over Ukraine."    source

(2) 

"...EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and ... other European leaders and policy makers like the head of the German parliament’s foreign policy committee Norbert Röttgen, saying an EU army was “a European vision whose time has come”.^[6][7]

Interesting Rumors (Leak?)

...snip.....
"The German submarines will, at the end of 2015, be under Dutch Command due to a bilateral agreement outside of NATO or the EU.  The Dutch and German Armed Forces are in the process of merging into one common armed force.  This is seen as precursor to a common EU Army.  The Air Mobile Infantry of both countries are already merged and under German command and there are plans to merge the last of the Dutch tanks [both Germany and the Netherlands use the German made Leopard 2 tank - the world's second best tank!] and artillery with the German counterparts.

Next step is to place elements of the German Navy under Dutch Admiralty (like the Belgian navy [is already?]. The first units will be German subs.

The Dutch and British expeditionary [surface?] forces are also merging and being placed under the British admiralty."
...snip...   (read more of "KEVIN's BACKGROUND ON THE NETHERLAND and GERMAN SITUATION") at Peter Coates's Submarine Matters

Submarines are always silent and strange.

UPDATE: Brazil's Coming Used Submarine Sale

BACKGROUND (from August 28, 2009)

Brazil intended to build five submarines by 2021 with France (Scorpene class subs), of which one would be nuclear. Construction was slated to commence in 2016.

The original $160M estimate (for the n-sub) to $9.5 billion U.S. dollars for all, will be paid in 2026, five years after launch. [Former President Luiz Inacio da Silva's government agreed in 2008 to purchase five submarines, including a nuclear-powered one, from France for 6.7 billion euros].

If Hugo Chavez is still in power, Venezueula would like to buy 1 or 2, depending upon condition, and immediately sell the HDW 209 to Iran. Ahmadinejad (if still in power) plans to upgrade the HDW 209 using Russian assistance.

UPDATES

Brazilian police to probe nuclear submarine programme - Folha - Reuters, TodaySAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazilian federal police are investigating potential irregularities in a military programme that aims to build a nuclear-powered submarine in partnership with France by 2023, newspaper Folha de S. Paulo reported on Wednesday.

The investigation that began in March of 2014 has jailed some of Brazil's most senior engineering executives and caused Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as Petrobras is formally known, to write off more than $2 billion in corruption-related losses. 

Dozens of lawmakers, mostly from President Dilma Rousseff's governing coalition, have also been implicated for allegedly taking bribes in the kickback scheme, which has spiralled into Brazil's largest-ever corruption scandal.

The 7.8 billion reais ($3.95 billion) program will turn out the first conventional submarine in 2015 and the nuclear-powered submarine will be commissioned in 2023 and enter operation in 2025, the Brazilian Navy said. -  Mar 1, 2013    

 [Now, even these June 24th 2015 (last month's) estimates are unlikely]:
The first Scorpene-class vessel is expected to be completed by 2016 and to be commissioned in 2018, while the other three SSKs are scheduled for completion in 2022. The construction of the first SSN is planned to end in 2023 with entry into service slated for 2025.  - June 24, 2015
Hugo Chavez is out of power, and Venezueula can no longer afford to buy 1 or 2 of Brazil's existing sub fleet (four Tupi-class and one HDW Type 209 subs) and immediately sell the HDW 209 to Iran, which probably had planned to upgrade the HDW 209 using Russian assistance. Now, Brazil may have to lease the Type 209 to Kim Jong-un.  [Sure, that is what will happen, NOT!]


Submarines are always silent and strange.

Tuesday Notes & Tidbits (2015, #004)

Submarines are always silent and strange. - Tidbits  No. 04

CURIOUSLY ENTERTAINING  19 JUN 2015 - "After more than three decades Vice Adm. Thomas Rowden finally has what he’s always wanted – a Top Gun school for surface warfare officers."  The Naval Surface Forces commander emceed the ceremony earlier this month to celebrate the establishment of the Naval Surface and Mine Warfighting Development Center (SMWDC) at San Diego's navy Base. 

M.E.:  Imitation may be the sincerest form of flattery, but co-location must have been over the top:

"The new school will be located at the Top Gun school at Naval Air Station Fallon in Nevada." - NavyTimes (18 JAN 2015)

++

EMBARRASSING  23 JUN 2015 - "US Navy Picks First Female Enlisted Sailors to Serve Aboard Submarines... 

"Under pressure from lawmakers and Pentagon leaders to integrate more military jobs to women, the Navy in 2011 began allowing female officers to serve on submarines.  Women, meanwhile, make up 15 percent of the [entire U.S.] sea service."

With more interested female candidates than there were open slots, Navy officials said qualified sailors not chosen for the jobs will be placed on an alternate list and automatically considered for the next group to be chosen. 

M.E.: Really?  Apparently an "open slot" is not due to an actual shortage of male submariners, but an allocation of enlisted billets to slightly fewer interested female candidates. The result: Slightly more female candidates than appropriate billets.

+++

SUBLIME CAPITALISM (by China) 26 JUN 2015 -"How Did China Just Win Thailand’s New Submarine Bid?"

The official line from military sources is that the decision to go with Chinese-made submarines was based largely on value. In a separate report, The Bangkok Post cited various sources from the navy and the procurement committee as saying that China was chosen because its submarines were not only the cheapest, but of good quality as well contrary to concerns on this score. But a committee member also disclosed that Beijing had offered military technology transfer and training as part of the package, which other countries would otherwise charge more for. That member likened buying submarines to a car purchase. “If we are able to buy a Mercedes but have no money left for petrol, we should look at a top model Toyota instead, which would still leave some money for petrol,” the source said.

M.E.:  The U.S., German and South Korean auto industries had better take notice!

++++

BOON for LITIGATION ATTORNEYS  26 JUN 2015 - "Here are the most fascinating innovations in underwater travel"

"British travel company Oliver’s Travels created a specially adapted submarine in St. Lucia known as Lovers Deep, an underwater vessel where couples can spend the night in a private accommodation. The submarine, which is already available for use, is staffed by a crew of three, a captain, chef, and butler, and can be taken to locations chosen by the customer.

It’s not cheap, at £175,000 per night ($US274,694), but each interior of the private submarine room is set to be designed and manufactured to your specifications and includes a two-person bathroom and double bedroom with ocean views. Speedboat transfers come with the package, but you can also request helicopter transfer with a beach landing through the company’s Concierge Service.

M.E.:  Well, although very few "dates" may willingly wish to spend even one night in a submerged suite, evasion of certain statutes will attract some well-heeled sex predators.  There is also an ever-present risks of fire, drowning, and asphyxiation.

Consider the timing...

Background
Operation Wigwam  evaluated the detonation of a Mark 90 Betty, a nuclear depth bomb.  The test was conducted May 14th in 1955, some 500 miles southwest of San Diego.  OP Wigwam results helped determine (see declassified Wigwam film) the effectiveness of deeply detonated nuclear weapons (nuclear torpedoes and depth charges, for example) in combat against submerged eneny subs.


What prompted Operation Wigwam to surface at 'War Is Boring" in December of 2014?


First, we know that nuclear tests are conducted and evaluated with limited publicity and nil transparency of results until declassified decades later:

"The bomb was suspended by cable from an unmanned barge and detonated at a depth of 2,000 feet in water that was 16,000 feet deep. The test had a yield of 30 kilotons. ...

In 1980, when the details of Operation Wigwam became publicly known, Governor Brown of California issued an immediate call for the federal government to publicly release the names of all servicemen involved in Wigwam, so that they could receive suitable medical treatment."  source

Additionally, tests, capabilities, limitations and ceetain operations applicable to specific U.S. submarines are justifiable secrets kept from public knowledge for significant periods of time.
Wigwam participants had to sign 25-year nondisclosure and secrecy agreements. Since all submariners had already signed some form of secrecy agreement beforehand, it was also necessary for many to sign non-travel agreements to certain foreign destinations for x years after their discharge from active duty.


More Recent Events

North Korea Is In The Process Of Developing A Fleet Of Nuclear Missile-Capable Submarines

In October, US General Curtis Scaparrotti, the commander of US forces on the Korean peninsula, warned that North Korea had developed "the capability to miniaturize a device at this point and they have the technology to actually deliver what they say they have."

In addition to submarine and WMD ambitions of known and suspected bad actors like North Korea, there have been unprecedented programs to acquire updated subs by nations dependent upon oil for food and energy shipments in an age of piracy, crime and Russian imperialism:

Global Submarine Proliferation: Emerging Trends and Problems

"Russia continues to be an active exporter of finished diesel submarines and is now providing nuclear reactor and submarine-design technology to China and India. In the Middle East and elsewhere, Germany remains a major submarine exporter, despite the WMD potential of some of its clients."

 In Molten Eagle's opinion, the How to Nuke a Submarine article by War Is Boring contributor Steve Weintz is a very timely reminder to potential bad actors of a severe, unexpected vulnerability to any injudicious acts they may have planned.  Like India (unfortunately) the DPRK has decades of catchup to overcome.

Submarines are always silent and strange.