Geopolitical Games with Submarine Pawns

Case #1  U.K.  v. Spain  (Gibraltar)

Background:  26 Jun, 2016 | UK sent a nuclear submarine to Gibraltar yesterday in a show of force against Spain. The move was seen as a response to the Spanish who, emboldened by the shock Brexit result, had demanded joint sovereignty over the Rock on the very same day. 

“There will be no discussion on joint sovereignty – the UK Government has made that clear.”  - source

Interim:
Damaged nuclear-powered submarine HMS Ambush still in port following Gibraltar collision

Foreground:
The chief minister of HM Government of Gibraltar said in a statement last week that "Gibraltar has proudly served as a port of call to provide shelter to the Royal Navy for centuries and this latest visit is no different. HMS Ambush is therefore as welcome today on the Rock as ever."  source

Case #2  U.S.  v.  N.K.  (DPRK)

Background:  July 6th | U.S. sanctions North Korean leader Kim Jong Un

"The United States imposed economic sanctions Wednesday on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and other government officials for their role in human rights abuses in the isolated country, particularly the running of forced labor camps and the torture and executions of dissidents.

The unusual but not unprecedented step of blacklisting a head of state is part of a concerted effort to step up pressure on Pyongyang that began in March when the U.N. Security Council and then the United States imposed harsh restrictions on trade with North Korea over its testing of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

Interim:
July 26 | North Korea reportedly constructing new larger submarine pens

North Korea has accused the United States of declaring war after Kim Jong Un was put on its list of sanctioned people.  Today

Foreground:  Special Operations Command has contracted Lockheed Martin to provide midget submarines to support US Navy SEALs

The DCS is strictly a transportation submarine, capable of carrying six or more SEALs. The most recent prototype can travel up to 60 nautical miles at a depth of 190 feet.

Mini-submarines are used to infiltrate hostile areas with accessible coastlines. SEALs reportedly infiltrated Somalia in 2003 using mini-subs. They would also be useful in countries such as North Korea, Pakistan, China, or even Russia.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Kim Jong Un - Takeaway

 

Background

December 2013 - The Takeaways: Execution of North Korea's #2

• Suh Sang-ki, a lawmaker in South Korea's governing Saenuri Party who sits on a parliamentary intelligence committee, said the decision to kill Jang suggests Kim's power is weaker than that of his father.

• There will be many more executions of Jang's allies and confidants," said Park Syung-je, a North Korea expert and chairman of South Korea's Asia Strategy Institute.

• "I think there's going to be a clear amount of brinksmanship," said Philip Yun, executive director of the Ploughshares Fund, a nuclear nonproliferation group. "I think if we continue to wait for him to do things, he's going to continue to shoot missiles, and he'll probably at some point decide to test a nuclear weapon."

Predicted then: Expect a coup in North Korea leadership before Kim Jong-un's birthday in 2017. - M.E.

May 2015 - Kim Jong Un's Next Purge for the BLBM (Barge Launched Strategic Missile)

Predicted then:  Obviously Kim Jong Un cannot excuse another purge by admission of his regime's flawed deceit in the DPRK's SLBM capability.  However, if he accuses the careless propaganda minister of sleeping, well there is already a stern precedent for handling inattentiveness to duty.  The only questions now are the identity of the scapegoat, the method of execution (bullet, is our guess), and how long before the world learns of the purge. - M.E.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

The Takeaways: Execution of North Korea's #2

Ostensibly unrelated ...

05 December 2013, WASHINGTON – Chinese warship nearly collided with USS Cowpens
A Chinese navy vessel tried this month to force a US warship to a halt in international waters have senior US officials and longtime Asia analysts asking what, precisely, China was trying to prove by the maneuver. 

China is out “to make sure that the US shows respect to China – that they acknowledge a sphere of influence,” says Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

13 December 2013 - Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)  –  Jang Sung-taek,  Vice Chairman of the National Defence Commission of North Korea, has been executed.

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Some Public Background  (all highly suspicious)

• China, whose senior officials were considered to have close ties to Jang, described the recent developments as North Korea's "internal affairs."1 - CNN
• Chinese experts say the upheaval is particularly alarming 2 because North Korea has nuclear weapons and a fragile economy.  - LA Times 

M.E.: Notice the obvious disparity between 1 (if we knew we would not tell) and 2 (the U.S. should be alarmed by this development).

• Jang was convicted under Article 60 of the criminal code, which bars acts against national sovereignty. Jang was accused of selling national resources at low prices, presumably to the Chinese. - LA Times, [Ibid]

M.E.:  If Jang, in fact, sold North Korean resources at low prices to the Chinese, what would China need that North Korea produces for sale? Had China actually bought anything at "low prices", or not objected to such public rationale as justification to execute a man with close ties to China, what part may China have played in ordering the Jang's purge?

 

• Despite the turmoil, former NBA star Dennis Rodman, who has built a friendship with Kim Jong Un, a basketball fan, is set to visit the nation next week. Rodman is organizing a friendship exhibition game between North Korea and a team of mainly former NBA players on Jan. 8, Kim's birthday. - LA Times, [Ibid]

M.E.: Note that Jang had also been Chairman of the State Physical Culture and Sports Guidance Commission of the Workers' Party.  This raises two issues: Did China advise Noth Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, that Dennis Rodman has been spying for the U.S.? or; Has Dennis Rodman begun spying for the U.S. yet?

What We Should Certainly Suspect

• If Dennis Rodman has been spying for the U.S. already, he would certainly make next week's visit to North Korea. 

• Suh Sang-ki, a lawmaker in South Korea's governing Saenuri Party who sits on a parliamentary intelligence committee, said the decision to kill Jang suggests Kim's power is weaker than that of his father.

• A provocative encounter between a U.S. Navy vessel and a North Korean ship in China's territorial waters. 

What We May Expect

• There will be many more executions of Jang's allies and confidants," said Park Syung-je, a North Korea expert and chairman of South Korea's Asia Strategy Institute.

•  "I think there's going to be a clear amount of brinksmanship," said Philip Yun, executive director of the Ploughshares Fund, a nuclear nonproliferation group. "I think if we continue to wait for him to do things, he's going to continue to shoot missiles, and he'll probably at some point decide to test a nuclear weapon."

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Prediction: Expect a coup in North Korea leadership before Kim Jong-un's birthday in 2017. - M.E.

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Submarines are always silent and strange.