The Halloween Hypothesis

Background (from October 31, 2013)

US submarine collisions in 21st Century to date:
    2001 USS Greeneville (SSN-772)
    2002 USS Oklahoma City (SSN-723)
    2003 USS Hartford (SSN-768) grounding (#1)
    2005 USS San Francisco (SSN-711) with seamountain
    2005 USS Philadelphia (SSN-690)
    2007 USS Newport News (SSN-750)
    2009 USS Hartford with USS New Orleans (#2)
    2012 USS Montpelier (SSN-765)
 Belated Addendum:
    2013 USS Jacksonville (SSN-690)  

Related NEWS  (March 2, 2016)

Lockheed to Provide Submarine Situational Awareness System 
Gobbledygook: "The LCCA is a passive planar array mounted on the aft submarine sail structure that is integrated with the Acoustic Rapid Commercial Off-The-Shelf Insertion AN/BQQ-25 systemto provide situational awareness and collision avoidance for improved tactical control in high density environments."

What ever happened to performance and alertness in U.S. submariners ?  Choose the answer(s) that best fit what the Navy confronts:

1. Back in the day, basic submarine seamanship had been a largely analog task relying on sonar, radar, and either lookouts or periscope data gathereing.
2. In the modern, digital age, analog tasks and basic seamanship are downplayed in  preference to technical skills. Hence, today's sailors are both more comfortable with, reliant upon, and prepared to expect digitized evaluations of ship situational awareness.
3. The shipping environment for subs is more chaotic these days due to higher traffic concentrations and the potential for more bad guys who like like civilians.
4. Sailors might not have been getting enough rest due to bizarre watch schedules and less than ideal lighting.

ANSWER: All of the above. 

M.E. Observation:  
Two low cost conformal array (LCCA) production units, spare modules and spare outboard electronics canisters will be tested on two selected subs for a few years to gage how well, if at all, LCCA can help crews avoid near misses and hits (collisions).  If LCCA is determined to be effective in real-life conditions for which it is being touted, Navy will decide whether to update the sub fleet. 

PREDICTION:  Meaningful success cannot be achieved short of improved crew alertness and performance.

Submarines are always silent and strange.


 

"...those really awesome missions that fast attacks do." - Lady submariner

In May 24, 2012  the commander of U.S. Navy submarine forces claimed integration of women into the formerly all-male undersea world is “very successful” and signaled that he is getting close to a recommendation on whether all submarines will be opened to women, including the small, tight-quarters attack subs in San Diego.  On October 15, 2013, the Navy announced that Women will be assigned to fast-attack submarines on or before January 2015, and that USS Virginia (SSN-774) and USS Minnesota (SSN-783) will be the first two gender fast-attacks. 

(Female Submariner) Quote of the Month [emphasis added]

“All of the history and lore of the submarine community really comes back to those really awesome missions that fast attacks do.  If it were to be opened, I think there are some of us who probably would be willing to serve on them despite the tight quarters.”  - Lt. j.g. Vanessa Esch, serving on the submarine Ohio in Bangor, Wash.    


source:  NavyTimes

*************

Submarine Humor  [emphasis added]

Q: Why is it a problem to have women on a submarine ? - A:  Wiki Answers

"The living quarters on submarines are very, very small and it is difficult/impossible to give women their own space (including bathrooms, dressing rooms and bed rooms). Women would have to sleep in the same bunkbeds as the men, dress in front of them and see men dress. There is an added danger of sexual harrasment because there is no privacy-- and any potential emotional tanglements could be pretty bad for the operation of the submarine. If you are deep under the surface of the ocean, there is no place for anyone to get away. However, the main reason is the cramped living spaces, where women would not be able to have their own quarters. It is a mater of society. The US does not allow it as for the most part we are prudes that cannot handle being around the opposite sex without difficulty. ..."

*************

More Space to Open Up on Ohio Subs [color emphasis added] 
The United States next year is slated to begin reducing launch tubes on each of its Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, a new independent report states.  The elimination of four operational launch tubes on each of the 14 submarines that make up the Navy's Ohio submarine fleet will be the first substantial reduction in U.S. strategic weapon delivery capability since the 2011 New START accord went into effect, according to Hans Kristensen, who co-authored an assessment on the current status of U.S. nuclear forces. The report was published in the January/February edition of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Prediction:  Due to improved accomodations for women in the newer, Huntington Ingalls-built Minnesota versus the 9-year older, EB built Virginia, Huntington Ingalls Industries (HI) will become the primary (if not sole source) designer of female accomodations for U.S. subs after only 6 to12 months of woman crew feedback.  Standby.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

The Takeaways: Execution of North Korea's #2

Ostensibly unrelated ...

05 December 2013, WASHINGTON – Chinese warship nearly collided with USS Cowpens
A Chinese navy vessel tried this month to force a US warship to a halt in international waters have senior US officials and longtime Asia analysts asking what, precisely, China was trying to prove by the maneuver. 

China is out “to make sure that the US shows respect to China – that they acknowledge a sphere of influence,” says Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

13 December 2013 - Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)  –  Jang Sung-taek,  Vice Chairman of the National Defence Commission of North Korea, has been executed.

*************

Some Public Background  (all highly suspicious)

• China, whose senior officials were considered to have close ties to Jang, described the recent developments as North Korea's "internal affairs."1 - CNN
• Chinese experts say the upheaval is particularly alarming 2 because North Korea has nuclear weapons and a fragile economy.  - LA Times 

M.E.: Notice the obvious disparity between 1 (if we knew we would not tell) and 2 (the U.S. should be alarmed by this development).

• Jang was convicted under Article 60 of the criminal code, which bars acts against national sovereignty. Jang was accused of selling national resources at low prices, presumably to the Chinese. - LA Times, [Ibid]

M.E.:  If Jang, in fact, sold North Korean resources at low prices to the Chinese, what would China need that North Korea produces for sale? Had China actually bought anything at "low prices", or not objected to such public rationale as justification to execute a man with close ties to China, what part may China have played in ordering the Jang's purge?

 

• Despite the turmoil, former NBA star Dennis Rodman, who has built a friendship with Kim Jong Un, a basketball fan, is set to visit the nation next week. Rodman is organizing a friendship exhibition game between North Korea and a team of mainly former NBA players on Jan. 8, Kim's birthday. - LA Times, [Ibid]

M.E.: Note that Jang had also been Chairman of the State Physical Culture and Sports Guidance Commission of the Workers' Party.  This raises two issues: Did China advise Noth Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, that Dennis Rodman has been spying for the U.S.? or; Has Dennis Rodman begun spying for the U.S. yet?

What We Should Certainly Suspect

• If Dennis Rodman has been spying for the U.S. already, he would certainly make next week's visit to North Korea. 

• Suh Sang-ki, a lawmaker in South Korea's governing Saenuri Party who sits on a parliamentary intelligence committee, said the decision to kill Jang suggests Kim's power is weaker than that of his father.

• A provocative encounter between a U.S. Navy vessel and a North Korean ship in China's territorial waters. 

What We May Expect

• There will be many more executions of Jang's allies and confidants," said Park Syung-je, a North Korea expert and chairman of South Korea's Asia Strategy Institute.

•  "I think there's going to be a clear amount of brinksmanship," said Philip Yun, executive director of the Ploughshares Fund, a nuclear nonproliferation group. "I think if we continue to wait for him to do things, he's going to continue to shoot missiles, and he'll probably at some point decide to test a nuclear weapon."

 *************

Prediction: Expect a coup in North Korea leadership before Kim Jong-un's birthday in 2017. - M.E.

*************

Submarines are always silent and strange.