Geopolitical Games with Submarine Pawns

Case #1  U.K.  v. Spain  (Gibraltar)

Background:  26 Jun, 2016 | UK sent a nuclear submarine to Gibraltar yesterday in a show of force against Spain. The move was seen as a response to the Spanish who, emboldened by the shock Brexit result, had demanded joint sovereignty over the Rock on the very same day. 

“There will be no discussion on joint sovereignty – the UK Government has made that clear.”  - source

Interim:
Damaged nuclear-powered submarine HMS Ambush still in port following Gibraltar collision

Foreground:
The chief minister of HM Government of Gibraltar said in a statement last week that "Gibraltar has proudly served as a port of call to provide shelter to the Royal Navy for centuries and this latest visit is no different. HMS Ambush is therefore as welcome today on the Rock as ever."  source

Case #2  U.S.  v.  N.K.  (DPRK)

Background:  July 6th | U.S. sanctions North Korean leader Kim Jong Un

"The United States imposed economic sanctions Wednesday on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and other government officials for their role in human rights abuses in the isolated country, particularly the running of forced labor camps and the torture and executions of dissidents.

The unusual but not unprecedented step of blacklisting a head of state is part of a concerted effort to step up pressure on Pyongyang that began in March when the U.N. Security Council and then the United States imposed harsh restrictions on trade with North Korea over its testing of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

Interim:
July 26 | North Korea reportedly constructing new larger submarine pens

North Korea has accused the United States of declaring war after Kim Jong Un was put on its list of sanctioned people.  Today

Foreground:  Special Operations Command has contracted Lockheed Martin to provide midget submarines to support US Navy SEALs

The DCS is strictly a transportation submarine, capable of carrying six or more SEALs. The most recent prototype can travel up to 60 nautical miles at a depth of 190 feet.

Mini-submarines are used to infiltrate hostile areas with accessible coastlines. SEALs reportedly infiltrated Somalia in 2003 using mini-subs. They would also be useful in countries such as North Korea, Pakistan, China, or even Russia.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Ominous Portents for "Infant" India with Nuclear Subs

Choose any learned profession and among its top tier of admired practitioners will be some from the subcontinent we know as India (population ~ 1.2 billion est. 2011).  This is quite a stellar achievement for a country whose male literacy rate is less than The Republic of Congo's (89.6%), Zambia's (86.8%), Botswana's (84.6%), Cambodia's (82.8%), and Swaziland's (82.6%), although India's male literacy is  barely above Egypt's (81.7%) and well above neighboring Pakistan's 70%.

When it comes to managing nuclear submarines could the educated admirals and elites be overreaching?  How well does India's Navy manage its non-nuclear or decommissioned naval assets? Read on...

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January 10, 2008  ME:  Indian Submarine Collision opens Pandora's Box of Intrigue One of India's Kilo-based diesel submarines, INS Sindhughosh scraped under a large merchant ship in the Arabian Sea about 114 nautical miles from Mumbai on Monday. Fortunately, no casualties were reported...

August 15, 2013   Indian navy reels after submarine disaster in Mumbai
New Delhi (CNN) -- The Indian navy suffered its worst peacetime disaster this week when an explosion and fire sank a submarine with 18 sailors on board in a Mumbai dockyard. ...Navy officials, meanwhile, are trying to figure out what went wrong on the INS Sindhurakshak, a submarine that had only recently returned from an extensive refitting in Russia.  ..."The accident is all the more painful because the navy had recently achieved two major successes in the form of its first nuclear submarine, INS Arihant, and the aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant," he said.

August 22, 2013 - Inside China: China ridicules Indian navy
“Paper tiger” was the term used by the Communist Party-run newspaper, the Global Times, to describe the Indian navy, which has been locked in a fierce buildup race with the Chinese navy. The newspaper challenged India’s claim that the INS Vikrant is “indigenous,” calling it a “brand of 10,000 nations” because the ship is said to have used French blueprints, Russian air wings and U.S.-made engines. “[The submarine’s explosion] seems to have provided a footnote to India’s real naval prowess,” the Global Times reported Monday in language that clearly gloated about the mishap.

Jan 26, 2014 - New Delhi: Indian Navy removes captains of two frontline ships INS Talwar, INS Betwa  The Indian Navy has removed the captains of two frontline warships INS Talwar and INS Betwa, Captain Gopal Suri and Captain Deepak Bisht respectively from their positions.  A newspaper report said, both the captains have been stripped of their positions for serious lapses that led to accidents under their command.

Jan 28, 2014  - THE HINDU   Chennai - Toll in Chennai submarine mishap climbs to two

The toll in the mishap at the decommissioned submarine INS Vagli docked at the port here rose to two on Tuesday as another person succumbed to anoxia, police said.  Bhavani Shankar (47), owner of the contracting firm who tried to rescue his employee, Mahendran (36) from a manhole-like structure inside INS Vagli succumbed to the adverse impact in absence of oxygen, police said. Mahendran (36), who had gone inside the submarine on Monday, fainted in absence of oxygen and later died.

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Submarines are always silent and strange.

US vs. Syria: What to Expect and Why

Guest cartoonist and close friend Juan Caruso offers his appraisal of developments now captivating the media:



US vs. Syria: What to Expect and Why by Juan Caruso

Russia last week sent an anti-submarine ship and a cruiser to the zone. 

“CBS News correspondent David Martin reports two submarines — one American, one British — are in the eastern Mediterranean along with four American destroyers and a fifth on the way — all armed with cruise missiles. That’s more than enough firepower for a strike Pentagon officials say would be limited to fewer than 50 targets.”

Frightening news? No, but the U.S. mainstream media presentation of political posturing is calculated to be as alarming as possible without appearing irresponsible.  Attracting more attention to the Middle East simply snares more readers, viewers, and listeners, which sells more advertising.

Drastic military action has neither been in the cards nor has it ever been the objective of the "red-line" warning President Obama believed he would never have to enforce.  Now, Obama needs a minimalist action, convincing symbolism, if you please, as a last-resort follow through on a U.S. promise.

Putin has both publicly warned Obama and advance positioned ASW ships in the zone in which our missile launchers would operate. He would leave egg on Russsia’s face if he failed to interfere with a U.S. cruise missile attack.

Putin does not suffer embarrassment any more lightly than Obama. For that fact alone, we may also conclude that the two leaders have already agreed on a token strike on a token target that would count more toward usual mainstream propaganda in the U.S., and less for factual substance for Russian allies.

Obama may accomplish his limited objective with a drone strike or two on a Syrian military officer with an impressive rank and little fame, and another strike on an empty Syrian military facility. Putin, may have obtained and sent Obama the name and location of an unfortunate Syrian officer with Assad’s blessing. Putin would gladly allow the US to proceed with a few hated drones as indications of how weak and powerless the U.S. is --- a paper tiger.

Over the last 5 years President Obama has sent innumerable drones attacks targets (primarily terrorist assassinations) on two continents without declarations of war against against the host countries (think Pakistan and Somalia). Why are U.S. cruise missle ships pre-positioned,off Syria then?  There are three C.Y.A. reasons:

• Military Symbolism
• Political Decoys
• Plausible Deterrence

Still don't believe me? Wait and see for yourself; time will tell.

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 Submarines are always silent and strange.