Update: Israeli Submarine "Second Strike" Deterrent

From October 19, 2006 - Submarine Nuclear Deterrence on a (Relative) Shoestring -

Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said earlier today that the Jewish state was "illegitimate" and could not survive.To be effective, Israel's newest Dolphin submarines (ordered in July, 2006) must be delivered and their crews trained before Iran manages to tip its first, medium-range missile with a nuclear warhead. Israel knows pretty well when such capability will exist and has planned this purchase with ample lead time.

Germany will absorb one-third of the $1.3 billion bill for the diesel-electric propulsion systems that allow the new subs to remain submerged longer than the three nuclear arms-capable submarines already in Israel's fleet, the Jerusalem Post reported. ... Think $1.3 billion is alot? The total acquisition costs of the UK's Trident programme are £12.57 billion (about $24 billion).

Molten Eagle predicted that 'To be effective, Israel's newest Dolphin submarines (ordered in July, 2006) must be delivered and their crews trained before Iran manages to tip its first, medium-range missile with a nuclear warhead. Israel knows pretty well when such capability will exist and has planned this purchase with ample lead time.'

Finally, Israel herself has answered the obvious question: When will Iran have nukes? - May 6, 2008, The Jerusalem Post - Iran could have nukes by '09:

Last week, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said during a visit to the US that Teheran would likely achieve control of the technology to enrich uranium for an atomic bomb within a year. ...CIA Director Michael Hayden said last month that the alleged Syrian nuclear reactor would have produced enough plutonium for one or two bombs within a year of becoming operational.

Published reports indicate Israel's first Dolphin class AIP sub is scheduled to be completed in 2012. The subs will be heavily modified and larger than 209 class subs. What does this tell us? Iran either will not have delivery and guidance for a nuclear strike on Israel before 2012, or Israel already has a sophisticated, second strike capability:

This is a sophisticated command and control system. Blue-green, sea-piercing lasers, developed, in part, at a U.S. weapons lab, can be used to communicate with the subs in so-called "bell ringer" operations. In situations in which war was imminent or had actually started, deployable rockets carrying the lasers would be fired to send the submarines a signal to come to periscope depth for further orders. Blue-green lasers, of the type Israel was known to be developing in the 1980s, can penetrate to 3,000 feet over a range of 6,200-square miles. [Emphasis added]

Since submarines are always silent and strange, I suspect the latter, Israel already has such sophistication, or even better.