Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Update: Israeli Submarine "Second Strike" Deterrent

From October 19, 2006 - Submarine Nuclear Deterrence on a (Relative) Shoestring -


Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said earlier today that the Jewish state was "illegitimate" and could not survive.To be effective, Israel's newest Dolphin submarines (ordered in July, 2006) must be delivered and their crews trained before Iran manages to tip its first, medium-range missile with a nuclear warhead. Israel knows pretty well when such capability will exist and has planned this purchase with ample lead time.


Germany will absorb one-third of the $1.3 billion bill for the diesel-electric propulsion systems that allow the new subs to remain submerged longer than the three nuclear arms-capable submarines already in Israel's fleet, the Jerusalem Post reported. ... Think $1.3 billion is alot? The total acquisition costs of the UK's Trident programme are £12.57 billion (about $24 billion).


Molten Eagle predicted that 'To be effective, Israel's newest Dolphin submarines (ordered in July, 2006) must be delivered and their crews trained before Iran manages to tip its first, medium-range missile with a nuclear warhead. Israel knows pretty well when such capability will exist and has planned this purchase with ample lead time.'


Finally, Israel herself has answered the obvious question: When will Iran have nukes? - May 6, 2008, The Jerusalem Post - Iran could have nukes by '09:


Last week, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said during a visit to the US that Teheran would likely achieve control of the technology to enrich uranium for an atomic bomb within a year. ...CIA Director Michael Hayden said last month that the alleged Syrian nuclear reactor would have produced enough plutonium for one or two bombs within a year of becoming operational.

Published reports indicate Israel's first Dolphin class AIP sub is scheduled to be completed in 2012. The subs will be heavily modified and larger than 209 class subs. What does this tell us? Iran either will not have delivery and guidance for a nuclear strike on Israel before 2012, or Israel already has a sophisticated, second strike capability:




This is a sophisticated command and control system. Blue-green, sea-piercing lasers, developed, in part, at a U.S. weapons lab, can be used to communicate with the subs in so-called "bell ringer" operations. In situations in which war was imminent or had actually started, deployable rockets carrying the lasers would be fired to send the submarines a signal to come to periscope depth for further orders. Blue-green lasers, of the type Israel was known to be developing in the 1980s, can penetrate to 3,000 feet over a range of 6,200-square miles. [Emphasis added]



Since submarines are always silent and strange, I suspect the latter, Israel already has such sophistication, or even better.

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5 Comments:

At 12 May, 2008 09:31, Blogger Chap said...

I throw the BS flag at the laser thing. All sorts of silliness have been promised for b/g lasers since I was in high school--I used clorophyll for a pretty blue fluorescence back in the day--but pesky laws of physics and engineering troubles have gotten in the way. Last I heard about the state of the art in b/g lasers was 2007 and I doubt it's changed much since.

How credible is this? Debka credible? "Operation Samson" credible?

 
At 13 May, 2008 13:20, Blogger Vigilis said...

Chap, your suspicion of the sources cannot be disputed.

If Israel had a system that performed to specs given by the author, I am sure the U.S. version would be highly classified.

However nifty a technology sounds for sub communications and control, there is always an older, less glamorous back-up.

Thanks for sharing your early experience and latest knowledge of b/g lasers.

 
At 16 May, 2008 20:11, Blogger Chap said...

Thanks. I would speculate that if this method of comms was successful, we'd see a program line on the top-priority 'comms at speed and depth' initiative instead of the expert science types who were working b/g lasers for decades updating us on how there's been not much change in the science. I'd also expect to see some changes in operations and missions unless the capability were a one shot deal that had to be kept secret for that one use.

Also, N87 would be crowing from the rooftops whenever it got used!

Israeli boats carry Harpoons. They don't go as far as D-5s, even if they did have some wonder weapon secretly glued to the front of the missile. The boats are in the Med. Makes it tough.

If I were thinking second strikes for that country, I'd focus on other kinds of tricks like to have one buried way deep somewhere in Teheran.

 
At 30 May, 2008 14:30, Blogger jeff said...

I know we've got tube-launched Tomahawks - might they?

 
At 08 October, 2009 17:22, Blogger Gerald Andre said...

I leave this link in support of the Blue-Green Laser communications mentioned, currently being used by the US and Israeli military:

http://lcresearchinc.com/freespace_laser_communications.htm

 

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