Thursday, June 26, 2008

Prediction Updates: Bingo!

1st Prediction... (June 3, 2005) - Vigilis, A Bit of a Different Look at Strategic Threats, 2005


SSNs put blimps out of business like Germany's new diesels and the war on terror's budget is putting SSNs out of business (not completely, but in quantity)...slowly but surely. Modernized blimps would probably do a fine job denying access to homeland littorals at costs the Pentagon could digest cheaply.
Three years and three weeks later ... Now, June 24, 2008 -

MIAMI (Reuters) - The Navy is leasing a Skyship 600, about the size of a Boeing 747, for the six-week test mission between Florida's southern coast and Cuba, Coast Guard Lt. Matthew Moorlag said on Tuesday.

Notes...


With an effective range exceeding 15,000 feet, and altitudes to 12,500 feet, Stinger missiles may easily target the 57 MPH blimp's dual Porsche 930 engine exhaust before heat decoys could be released from the Skyship's 1,500 to 3,000 foot operating altitude.


Crew size is minimal (3), but terrorist heat-seeking Stingers would work well at the nominally low altitudes before decoys could be launched. Perhaps a good reason contractors will pilot the blimp while Navy and Coast Guard technicians on the ground will monitor threat data and direct chase vessels as needed. Or, has a more effective Stinger neutralizer been deployed?

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Zarqawi's death was under strange circumstances: he had been found alive in the remains of his hideout, but everyone else was dead. Gadahn's death will be similarly strange. Just wait about 255 days +/- 90. - January, 2008.

Update June 25, 2008 - With YouTube Video (WARNING: vulgar language)


Now, Gadahn may plan to surrender directly to a future president Obama in a deal to spare his life. His attorneys may already have made overtures to U.S. agents (lawyer-client confidentiality bars our press from telling us, even if they knew). Gadahn would face a different threat, however, if Al-Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri learned of Gadahn's intended surrender. My prediction still holds, Gadahn now has only 85 days +/- 90 to live. Video..



American Al Qaeda ...

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2 Comments:

At 26 June, 2008 18:37, Blogger reddog said...

Blimps don't do good in bad weather and they can't outrun it. Look at what happened to all the Navy's airships. Wrecked in bad weather. Do we want a fair weather weapons system?

 
At 26 June, 2008 20:13, Blogger Vigilis said...

Reddog, your points are excellent. The theory, however, is that these blimps are not weapons systems per se, but monitoring stations (like fire watch towers).

In bad weather, blimps are at risk, but surface craft, especially the smaller types, are ineffective as well. In normal weather the blimps communicate with the base station which assesses threat (or rescue) need and calls in the applicable response ;ike 911. Might even be all-weather fighter jets. Hmmm!

I would bet the blimp capability upsets a multitude of terrorist plans uncovered at Gitmo or by interrogations elsewhere.

 

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