Monday, March 01, 2010

About the Next Large-Scale Terror Attack on the US

Just giving terrorist suicide bombers a good idea? Not at all, we first detected this concept in June of 2006, on the Chiapas site here. STRAP-ON 'STEALTH WINGS' ARE NOW AVAILABLE attributed to “Autor(a): Islamic Community”.
Fast forward to
February 2, 2010 - WASHINGTON — The New York Times - America’s top intelligence official told lawmakers that Al Qaeda had made it a high priority to attempt a large-scale attack on American soil within the next six months.
Molten Eagle assigns only a low 9% probability of a large-scale attack on American soil within the next six months (most likely between April 15 and June 16th, we would guess). M.E.'s 9% estimate is almost double the 5% odds we gave such an attack during the post 9/11 Bush administrations, however, when newspapers had carried official estimates of > 50% probability.
As we had said in 2006, a terrorist stealth attack launched from outside the 24-mile limit could be more problematic for an administration beset by intimidating lawmakers who regularly question the legality of every move against radical islamist terror and want to impeach the man responsible for checking its secretive spread. With good reasons: 'Wings' to carry paratroopers 200km - Peter Felstead, the editor of Jane's Defence Weekly, says the new system has been in use with the German Army since 2003. ESG claimed in 2006, that the next stage of development would add small turbo-jets to the wings for extended range. The sophistication of related training would exclude nearly the entire suicide bomber gene pool, however.
What would make 91% (our estimate) of Islamist paradise-seekers reluctant to adopt batwings to detonate 40 pounds of Semtex or c-4 on targets within 100 miles of our coast? Extremists intelligent, brave and fit enough to successfully pass ‘batwing’ training are unlikely to focus on a suicide mission afterward - their sense of accomplishment would overpower their religious despondency.
Finally, what aircraft could approach unnoticed within 24 miles of U.S. air space in order to drop dozens of batty suicide bombers? Weather must also be good enough to permit successful navigation to targets on the fly. Odds seem very low.
Al-Qaeda's wishing will not make their lofty batwing scheme so.



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