ARA San Juan Missing New Questions Raised

UPDATE #3 (15 DEC 17) -  

Could answer Molten Eagle's original question (1) below about why the Argentine sub was traveling SUBMERGED AFTER its battery fire AND SNORKLE CASUALTIES? We had even alluded to a the possibility of a classified mission. Prediction (5) below, is now worth repeating:  Something very secretive in nature is neither being discussed nor disclosed.

According to today's related report  Family member: Missing Argentinian sub was being 'chased' 
The sister's account, made public Wednesday, was immediately blasted by Argentinian military officials as "completely untrue." But Jessica Medina, whose brother Roberto Daniel Medina served aboard the sub, told Argentina's La Gaceta newspaper in an exclusive interview that she received the message on WhatsApp just days before the vessel vanished Nov. 15.

"It was that weird message in which he told us he was looking for a British helicopter and a Chilean ship, but unfortunately we did not continue with that conversation, he stayed there. That was the last message," she said. In his messages, the sister said her brother told her the ARA San Juan was sailing close to the Falklands -- referred to as Malvinas by Argentina -- on Nov 3

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Regardless of actual circumstances, Molten Eagle extends our heartfelt sympathies to families and friends of the latest 44 submariners to perish beneath the waves.

UPDATE #2 (4 DEC 17) -

According to today's related report Missing Argentine Sub's Crew Informed About Device's Failure in Sept. 
MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The crew of the missing Argentine submarine San Juan with 44 crew members on board reported in September [months before its loss] that the submarine's snorkel, a device which takes in air from the surface and ensures submerged operation, failed, causing water to enter into the vessel, the Clarin newspaper reported, citing the Argentine Navy report. [UNCONFIRMED]

However, according to the outlet, important parts were not flooded and the submarine was scheduled for repair works in 2018.

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If true, the above report underscores the relevance of our original questions (#1 and #2), why would ARA San Juan compound its difficulty (a very low after battery charge) with the attendant hazards of  sailing underwater? and was the diesel propulsion system out of commission after the snorkle flooded? However, an explosion quite renders question #3 (was the emegency blow system out of commission due to inadequate air pressure?) irrelevant.  Now that we know crewmember Rothlisberger was permitted to miss the sub's last departure after performing a series of tasks for his boss.  What, if any mechanical responsibilities did his boss have and such permission is rarely accorded unless the tasks have been so arduous that fatigue could undermine crew readiness. On the contrary could Rothlisberge's presence on the last trip have helped save the sub San Juan? A good journalist would at least ask probe glaring questions and perhaps obtain credible answers.

UPDATE #1 (4 DEC 17) -

According to a FOXNEWS  report 24 NOV 17 2 sailors didn't board missing Argentina submarine at the last minute

 At the very last minute, two sailors did not board the Argentinian submarine that has been lost in the South Atlantic [since 15 NOV].

For different reasons, Humberto Vilte and Adrián Rothlisberger did not board the submarine with the 44 other crew members, according to O Globo, a Brazilian newspaper.

Vilte was allowed to skip the mission after he learned that his mother had been hospitalized, O Globo reported. Rothlisberger was allowed [to miss the trip after completing tasks] for his boss, according to O Globo. He avoided the trip in “a matter of seconds,” Sandra Álvares [his mother] said.

BACKGROUND

The submarine ARA (Armada de la República Argentina) San Juan (S-42) has been considered missing since 17 November, two days since it had been ordered back to its Mar del Plata base after reporting a water deluge through its snorkel short-circuited its forward battery and reportedly not heard from again.

The San Juan had only a seven-day oxygen supply when it lost contact, and a sudden noise was detected that the navy says could have been the implosion of the vessel. 
Navy spokesman Enrique Balbi told a news conference Monday as hope dwindled among some families of the 44-member crew, including Argentina's first female submariner, Operations Officer Lt. Eliana María Krawczyk. 

LATEST & GLARINGLY UNANSWERED

“They had to isolate the battery and continue to sail underwater toward Mar del Plata, using another battery,” Balbi said.

GLARING QUESTIONS 

(1)

Unless another casualty has not been disclosed (likely) or a classified mission was still underway (possible?) why would ARA San Juan compound its difficulty (a very low after battery charge) with the attendant hazards of  sailing underwater?  Its Siemens electric propulsion motor would have been less taxed for underwater propulsion, but leave scant battery power available for new emergency needs. Also in the heavy seas after November 15th, submarines roll, pitch and yaw like bouncing logs, submergence was for safety and comfort. Rescue teams from the Royal Navy reported 33 ft waves in the search area.

                                        (2)
Was the diesel propulsion system out of commission after the snorkle flooded? All the more reason to surface transit. If the snorkle valve system was badly damaged, submergence would have been a very poor choice.
                                        (3)
Was the emegency blow system out of commission (inadequate air pressure), as well?  Dead in the water is usually preferred to dead on the bottom.

                                        (4)
If a hostile presence was involved from which the San Juan sought to hide,  who was behind the hostile force? This seems very unlikely.

                                        (5)
Was there a battery explosion due to saltwater exposure to battery cells?  This looks likely.

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Something very secretive in nature is neither being discussed nor disclosed.

Submarines are always silent and strange.  

Kim Jon Un Dictatorship 4th Update (8 NOV 17)

Background

Our Kim Dynasty countdown had remained at stage 8 on our 12-point scale since ME's 2nd delaration on September 28th. The political pressure on "The Little 'Rocket' Man" has been applied in a most embarassing fashion for him --- through  Today's Asian (The Manila Times) coverage of South Korean President Moon Jae-In's joint press conference with President Trump at the presidential Blue House in Seoul on November 7, 2017.

Consequently we move the 'Rocket Man' COUNTDOWN one step closer to zero at stage 7, the first shift in months (12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0).

UPDATE

SKorea ‘in talks to buy nuclear submarine’ from US – reports

"SEOUL: South Korea is negotiating with the United States to buy nuclear-powered submarines to guard against threats from Pyongyang, local reports said Tuesday, as President Donald Trump said Seoul would buy 'billions of dollars' of US weapons.  ... After a summit in South Korea with his counterpart Moon Jae-In, Trump on Tuesday said Seoul would be buying a large amount of US weapons “whether it’s planes, whether it’s missiles, no matter what it is”.

“The strategic assets under discussion include a nuclear-powered submarine and a sophisticated surveillance asset,” the reports quoted a senior official of Moon’s office as saying. "We will have close consultations with the US about these two in the future,” the official was quoted as saying. 

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Of course, China's envoys will tell DPRK generals that this is merely a Trump tactic to use a bargaining chip in negotiations with China which is entirely probable à la US-Taiwan arms deals. And whatever his generals hear from China, Kim will know and suspect his peasantry will hear. However, some DPRK's generals will have their doubts about how far Trump would go to arm South Korea. Since Kim must already expect defection among his top generals he will crack down (executions), which will make him appear more frightened than ever.  

Kim must continue to distract and befuddle his followers with domestic strife such as:

•  assassination of an alleged Kim (no doubt accused of plotting a regime takeover)

• executions of some token missile official who ineptly caused the delay in his pacific hydrogen bomb launch

• capture and executions of a South Korean spy cell (spotters and informers are already in North Korea)

Any combination of more than one of the above actions within 6 months will move our countdown 2 points closer as it would relect Kim's desperation at perceived panic level.

Trump's provocations are not over. Their impact has been calculated to escalate gradually.
 
PREDICTIONS
Remember, the more agitated and desperate for food and heat the peasants become this winter, the sooner Rocket Man becomes the "Un" Kim Jong-un.  Kim's time is running out. Western news has been covertly getting in, and if Kim survives another 12 months he wins  -- becoming almost invincible in a non-nuclear chess strategy as a formidible future nuclear threat.  This will not happen; either an internal coup takes him out, or he will disappear from public view forever after an ostensible visit to China, a hospital, or a vacation retreat.  

Submarines are always silent and strange.