Cable Outage - Is it the Language of Back-Channel Diplomacy or Black Mail?

UPDATE: Mumbai February 5, 2008 - 4th cable snaps, Qatar-UAE traffic disrupted -
'Iran is back online, but... its traffic is now passing through the UK and the US, the latter controlling the 13 primary routers. Can you say wiretap?' queries a blogger.

UPDATE: - Mumbai February 1, 2008 - Net traffic to be hit for 10-15 days - In India, 'there has been a 40 to 50 per cent cut in bandwidth,' according to Rajesh Chharia, president of the Internet Service Providers’ Association of India, adding: 'there’s an urgent need to create more capacity so that these problems do not recur'.
ALSO - STEPS IN REPAIRING A BROKEN UNDERSEA CABLE
+ Find the location of the accident; drag the damaged part to the surface, and replace it with a new stretch of cable
+ May also send light pulses along the fibers in the cable to determine the exact location
+ A working fiber will transmit those pulses all the way across the ocean; a broken one will bounce it back
+ The telecom operator then sends out a large cable ship with a few miles of fresh fibre-optic lines
+ If the faulty part of the cable is less than about 4,000 feet down, a submersible robot can be sent
+ The robot finds the right place; grabs hold of the cable; cuts out the malfunctioning section, and pulls the loose ends back up to the ship
+ Robots do not work in very deep water. In such cases, technicians use a grapnel to cut the cable and hold it
+ A skilled technician (jointer) splices the glass fibers; uses adhesives to attach the new section of cable
+ The repaired cable is then lowered back to the seabed on ropes


The FALCON cable was reported cut at 0559 hrs GMT February 1, 2008, (35 miles from Dubai) further degrading regional internet connectivity just two days after serious service disruptions from damaged FLAG and both of the SEA-ME-WE4 cables.

Those tempted to guess that the U.S. is somehow behind the mysterious cuts may be victims of the actual perpetrators' plot. While Iran would appear to be a standout victim of the cable cuts, all is not as it seems. 04 February 2008 - Iran: in anticipation of the 14th March parliamentary elections

Tensions have also increased as a result of the enforcement of Islamic Censorship on social aspects. Demonstrations of students, teachers, bus drivers and women right's supporters, have been nastily repressed, with dozens of arrests. source link

Tehran has been seeking new ways to censor the internet and track dissidents since 2006. source link

Conversely, India and its U.S. and European clients have borne the brunt of adverse economic impacts:

India's 11-billion-dollar outsourcing industry is made up of 1,250 firms that deliver services ranging from answering customer queries to processing credit card and mortgage applications. The industry employs 700,000 people, serving clients mainly in the United States and Europe that sought to cut costs by farming outwork to the country. source link

Iran is certainly a victim of its own, stubborn nuclear ambitions: 2 February 2008 - Chinese banks cut business with Iranian banks: report Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear know-how unimpeded. If state-sponsored, who, besides Canada and Italy are off the hook? Certainly the members of the U.N. Security Council: China, France, Russia, the U.K., the U.S., plus one, Germany. Between Iran and Israel, who would be more likely?

Will we ever know what really happened to the cables? It is unlikely the saboteur would claim responsibility publicly.

Authorities would rarely disclose blackmail demands before trial. It appears that more cables were cut later, assuring some message had been sent for either blackmail or back-channel diplomacy. Intrigue of this boldness is common beneath the sea, but it rarely reaches the public's attention. Details will unfold very slowly, if ever.

Submarines are always silent and strange.