Submarine Limited Value Quotes of the Month

Background

When it comes to submarine-relater matters ("Submarines are always silent and strange.") the public can be virtually assured that 99.9% of informed quotations about important matters are of limited value due to: historical obsolescence; futuristic speculation, and omission of critical detail.

Quotations excerpted from 2 publications this month illustrate such limited value:

Quotations

1.  "The question that must be posed is thus, what should be done with a second-hand submarine which is in perfectly good condition?" 

Gadi Eisenkot, Chief of General Staff, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), The Jewish Voice, "Israel to Get Dolphin Submarine in 2019; Will Put Oldest Sub Out of Action", Raphael Rahaman,16 December 2015.

M.E. note:  Estimated cost for the replacement sub is 400 million euros ($440 million).  When decommissioned, the older sub could conceivably be: stripped and sold for scrap; sunk in deep water; used in training recruits; traded-in to Germany's HDW; or donated to a friendly country.  Which option(s) is/are actually realistic for Israel, or has an entirely different decision actually been made?

2.  "Russia already has taken steps that would "guarantee neutralizing" any prospective missile defense."

Col. Gen. Sergei Karakayev, Strategic Missile Forces' commander, MOSCOW (AP) ,  Russian general says new weapons will 'neutralize' US shield, Dec 16, 2015.

M.E. note:  Russia's Status-6 torpedo, NATO code name Kanyon, was "leaked" in September and appears to be the Karakayev's neutralizing factor.  Firstly,  how and where does one test a long-range, thermonuclear warhead or a nuclear-powered torpedo nowadays?  If Russia does so with impunity can North Korea and Iran be far behind?  Secondly, Russia's Bulava (missile) tests had many failures.  And underwater tests may make weapons susceptible to capture and analysis.  If not tested at long range, however, what certainty can Russia have of course accuracy and even survival when struck by marine biologics?  Assume Russia decides not to risk testing Kanyon.  Then, accidentally sinking a Carnival cruise liner full of foreign tourists becomes grossly unacceptible. Building the Kanyon is one thing; if Russia ever tests the claimed thermonuclear warhead, the world will know and Russia relegated to remain on the BRICS for a long, long time --- a poor outcome for a talented people.
 
Submarines are always silent and strange.

Recent Revelations from Canada's and Israel's Navies are

Whether viewed with awe; shock, or simple disbelief, recent revelations by Canada and Israel are unusually disconcerting.

The Royal Canadian Navy (RCN)

AWE: No injuries connected with damage shown.   DISBELIEF: "Indefinite" absence of a seaworthy destroyer for Canada's West coastline (but 2 in the Atlantic).  more



Check out this RIMPAC YouTube (4:24 minutes) filmed on HMCS ALGONQUIN.  DISBELIEF: Did you hear piping from the bridge then the announcement "Wakey, Wakey! Hands to Breakfast..."  (7 seconds in)?  SHOCK: Do you see an image on targets fired upon with rifles and small arms (3:00 to 3:15)? HINT: full screen helps.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF)

A memorial service for the 69 sailors of the INS submarine Dakar was held to mark the 46 years since it sank into the Mediterranean. The submarine disappeared in 1968, while en route from Scotland to Israel. After a decades-long search, the wreckage was found between Cyprus and Crete in 1999. The submarine had sunk to a depth of 2900 meters, just 500 kilometers from the Israeli coast. 
DISBELIEF:
"An investigation indicated that the cause was technical failure - not an attack - but this has never been fully confirmed."  source

24 January 1968
On 25 April 1968, Vice Admiral Abraham Botzer, commander of the Israeli Navy, stated that the Dakar sank on 24 January 1968, two days before being reported missing, due to "technical or human malfunctioning" and ruled out "foul play".

Dakar was was one of two mysterious submarine disappearances in 1968; the other being the French submarine Minerve (S647). To this day no trace of the vessel has been found.

8 June 1967 During the Third Arab–Israeli War, the USS Liberty,  a United States Navy technical research ship in international waters, was attacked by combined elements of of IDF air and sea forces killing 34 crew members (naval officers, seamen, two Marines, and one civilian), wounding 171 crew members, and severely damaging the ship.

Israel apologized for the attack, saying that the USS Liberty had been mistaken for an Egyptian ship and attacked in error.  Israel later paid  $3,323,500 to families of the 34 men killed, and in March 1969, Israel paid   $3,566,457 in compensation for those who had been wounded.  In 1980  Israel agreed to a $6 million  settlement of $17,132,709  material damage to the Liberty.

Vigilis implies absolutely NO connection between the Israels' attack on the USS Liberty and the subsequent loss of the Dakar.  Just as in the continuing mystery of USS Scorpion's (SSN-589)  loss, etc. it has been naval policy of submarine nations not to offer the public full disclosure of related investigatory findings.  The 46th anniversary of the Dakar tragedy reminds our reader community of the longstanding and ubiquitous nature of submarine secrecy, which has been repeated as the Molten Eagle saying at the end of   every post.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Out of the Submarine Fog

[Color, bold and underlining added for my own emphasis]

(1) Pride

A matter of pride, as well as an empirical fact...

"Israel Navy’s submarine service – For the best, but not for everybody" - says top recruiter.

 “We look for very special people,  a submarine is not for everybody. Errors cannot be made, because of the lives at stake, the important work, the cost – some half-a-billion euros per submarine – and even the diplomatic importance. Doing the wrong thing could lead to a declaration of war on Israel.”  - Lt.-Cmdr. Yohai Zeidman, a psychologist

(2) Silence & Stealth

Fisherman spooked after close shave with unidentified submarine off the coast of Donegal... 

 “We were just lucky to have come across it after it had surfaced.” - John Cunningham, fishing from Killybegs

"In recent years there has been much speculation linking the sinking of fishing trawlers with submarine activity in the area." - Bernard Moffatt, Celtic League Director of Information.   
 
Mr. Moffatt said that from a photograph (not the one above) of the submarine sent to him he was 99% certain it was a Royal Navy Astute class hunter-killer.

(3) No Worries? Cesium-137 Threat to Fisheries

What Threat do Sunken Nuclear Submarines Pose to Fisheries? Dumped radioactive waste and sunken nuclear subs cause radioactive contamination in the Arctic marine environment. Researchers irecently nvestigated the potential effects of leakages from two sunken submarines, containing large amounts of caesium-137 (an isotope with a half life of 30 years) with a potential to accumulate in cod and capelin. 

Researchers evaluated cesium-137 from the sub K-278 Komsomolets, which sank in the Norwegian Sea in 1989, and the K-159 that sank in 2003. Two scenarios were assumed: (i) continuous release of cesium-137 over a five-year period, and (ii) a single, 100% release equal to 100% of cesium-0137 in the subs at time of sinking. 

Neither scenario theoretically raised radioactivity in cod or capelin to levels considered dangerous by Norway's government. However, a hypothetical single release of 100% of the cesium-137 from K-159 would raise concentrations in cod to a hundred times their current level within two years after leakage. 
  
Researchers noted a need for further research to assess effects on the larger ecosystem.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

dumping of radioactive waste and sunken nuclear submarines all cause radioactive contamination in the Arctic marine environment. In this study, researchers investigated the potential effects of leakages from two sunken submarines, which contain large amounts of caesium-137. This radioactive isotope decays very slowly, with a half life of 30 years, and may accumulate in the body tissues of marine organisms. - See more at: http://www.thefishsite.com/fishnews/22098/what-threat-do-sunken-nuclear-submarines-pose-to-fisheries#sthash.HMatLBZs.dpuf