Friday, May 23, 2008

Would Not Hold Your Breath for 2009 U.S. Submarine Lottery and Gasoline Prices

PREDICTION - Virginia Class Sub Construction will be curtailed May 14, 2008 - Another $422 Million for subs? - The Navy’s official shipbuilding plan called for one submarine per year through 2011, then two per year beginning in 2012. A congressional plan enacted last year would build one additional submarine in either 2010 or 2011 (a total of three subs could be built during 2010 and 2011). M.E. thinks the so-called Hunter Amendment is very doubtful.

M.E.'s predictions for continued sub building in order of declining probability:
.... President Obama - One per year for the duration.
.... President Clinton - About 1.2 boats per year if the current ban on female submarine service is lifted; otherwise, one boat per year for the duration.
.... President McCain - One-half boat per year for the duration (short of a declaration of naval warfare).

2005 PREDICTION came to pass - The price of gasoline

September 01, 2005 - Submarines At Fault or Will Gas Prices Rise? - The prediction:
Loud noises from low frequency active (LFA) sonar used by the military to detect submarines, or from airgun arrays used during geological surveys of the seafloor by the petroleum industry may be responsible for the stranded species. If the latter, expect gas prices to rise!
We know what happened, gasoline prices did rise, and very dramatically. Was oil exploration at fault, then? Judge for yourself. Not into reading, how about some pictures:

Domestic oil recovery and offshore drilling disallowed. International oil production environmentally demonized by carbon footprinting (climate change fear). International oil exploration restricted by legitimate concerns for marine mammal populations. Result is less, more costly exploration and extraction = limited SUPPLY. Of course, demand has increased all the while.



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