Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Submarine Limited Value Quotes of the Month


When it comes to submarine-relater matters ("Submarines are always silent and strange.") the public can be virtually assured that 99.9% of informed quotations about important matters are of limited value due to: historical obsolescence; futuristic speculation, and omission of critical detail.

Quotations excerpted from 2 publications this month illustrate such limited value:


1.  "The question that must be posed is thus, what should be done with a second-hand submarine which is in perfectly good condition?" 

Gadi Eisenkot, Chief of General Staff, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), The Jewish Voice, "Israel to Get Dolphin Submarine in 2019; Will Put Oldest Sub Out of Action", Raphael Rahaman,16 December 2015.

M.E. note:  Estimated cost for the replacement sub is 400 million euros ($440 million).  When decommissioned, the older sub could conceivably be: stripped and sold for scrap; sunk in deep water; used in training recruits; traded-in to Germany's HDW; or donated to a friendly country.  Which option(s) is/are actually realistic for Israel, or has an entirely different decision actually been made?

2.  "Russia already has taken steps that would "guarantee neutralizing" any prospective missile defense."

Col. Gen. Sergei Karakayev, Strategic Missile Forces' commander, MOSCOW (AP) ,  Russian general says new weapons will 'neutralize' US shield, Dec 16, 2015.

M.E. note:  Russia's Status-6 torpedo, NATO code name Kanyon, was "leaked" in September and appears to be the Karakayev's neutralizing factor.  Firstly,  how and where does one test a long-range, thermonuclear warhead or a nuclear-powered torpedo nowadays?  If Russia does so with impunity can North Korea and Iran be far behind?  Secondly, Russia's Bulava (missile) tests had many failures.  And underwater tests may make weapons susceptible to capture and analysis.  If not tested at long range, however, what certainty can Russia have of course accuracy and even survival when struck by marine biologics?  Assume Russia decides not to risk testing KanyonThen, accidentally sinking a Carnival cruise liner full of foreign tourists becomes grossly unacceptible. Building the Kanyon is one thing; if Russia ever tests the claimed thermonuclear warhead, the world will know and Russia relegated to remain on the BRICS for a long, long time --- a poor outcome for a talented people.
Submarines are always silent and strange.

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