Saturday, February 17, 2018

Kim Jon Un's Unification Strategy --- Critical Flaws


Trump's Strategy:  U.S. strategy has been to create enough internal strife in North Korea's poorly fed underclass to foment a coup by some disenchanted generals.  Spies, Agent provacateurs, and heating oil sanctions were in place and due to exacerbate the unpopularity of Kim's harsh treatment of his vital hard labor workers this winter.  

Kim's Delaying Tactics:  North Korea's co-participation in the Winter Olympics with its South Korean host brightened peasant morale in hopes of continued peace and brighter economic prospects of  re-unification. Continuing shipments of oil to the DPRK in violation of U.N. sanctions, also aassures much needed heating supplies for peasants merely trying to survive another winter.   

Kim appears to have averted a coup, at least this winter.

Kim's Longer Game

Reunification with South Korea:  Kim's sister Yo-jong extended an invitation last Saturday to South Korea's President Moon Jae-in for a two Koreas summit.  During the summit Kim may entice Moon with an offer to an offer to remove heavy artillery now aimed at the South, which would be very popular with the South's citizen's and businesses. In return, Moon would be asked to accept North Korean businesses in the South, and perhaps agree to get the U.S. out of the DMZ.

Suppose President Moon Jae-in leaves rejects Kim's proposals and departs the summit. Kim will publicize his offer and Moon's rejection--- not positive for Moon's electoral prospects.  Moreover, Moon could suddenly fall ill and die like Kim's step brother last year.
If Moon's replacement were more receptive to Kim's proposals he might also be more popular with South Koreans.

Kim's long term strategy is simply to survive and rule a unified Korea on a more prosperous footing to threaten the U.S. and its Asian allies.

Obvious Flaws in Kim's Longer Game

President Moon Jae-in well remembers Kim's capacity for homicide: North Korea's 'gruesome' murder of Kim's brother Kim Jong Nam in February 2017.  Why would Moon ever go to North Korea to ingest a slow-acting poison or a contract a fatal virus?

Without U.S. forces on the DMZ, the DMZ would not be viable, and Moon knows this.  All the more reason for any summit to be held in the DMZ under watchful eyes, ears and video.


1- As Kim's PR strategy evaporates due to South Korea's reluctance, Kim must quickly restore his harsh reputation.  He will authorize publication of interim executions within the ranks of his military, as well as civilian for crimes like theft and murder (rather than for growing desertion attempts).  Time table: Probably before the end of 2018.

2- Kim's vaunted submarine fleet will experience accidents and disappearances due to growing age and maintenance issues.  Time table: whatever remains of Kim's life.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

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Saturday, February 10, 2018

Kim Jon Un Dictatorship Countdown: 5th Update (10 FEB 18)

Background (Trump's Watch Only):

14 May 2017, North Korea claimed it tested a "newly developed ballistic rocket" capable of carrying a large nuclear warhead. Early the next month the UN imposed a travel ban and asset freeze on four entities and 14 officials, including the head of North Korea's overseas spying operations'.

4 July, North Korea claimed it had carried out its first successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). By early August, the UN banned North Korean exports of raw materials (including coal) and limited foreign investments in the country.  Such sanctions aimed to eliminate about a third of Pyongyang $3 bn export economy.

3 September, North Korea said it had tested a hydrogen bomb that could be miniaturised and loaded on a long-range missile. Then, after a two- month pause, North Korea launched a Hwasong-15 ICBM missile in late November.  The next month the U.N. Security Council voted 15-0 in favor of tightened sanctions on the North to include:
 * Capping deliveriesof petrol products to 500,000 barrels a year, and crude oil at four million barrels a year, and
 * Restricting North Korea's vital source of foreign currency by:
   -Rrequiring N. Koreans working abroad to return home within 24 months.
   -Banning exports of certain N. Korean products, such as machinery and electrical equipment.

What has Trump's Strategy Been? 

Clearly, U.S. strategy has been to create internal strife in North Korea to foment an overthrow of Kim Jon Un's starvation regime.  Agent provacateurs and spies have been in place awaiting the accelerating hardships of winter cold on the huge peasant class. 

Trump's strategy was slowly working, so Kim's strategists pitched some brilliant, last-minute stymies to the Trumpl strategy. Kim finally bought into it, a little to late for the Olympics deadline, but even that was extended for the hope of world peace:
1- Subdue the winter's harsh impact by appealing to Russia, China and Germany, for example, to send heating oil on credit for emergency humanitarian relief.
2- Bolster the loyalty of North Korea's suffering peasants with news of their nation's participation in South Korea's Winter Olympics spectacle (ends Feb 25th), and DPRK will win several Olympic medals,again.
3- Encourage South Korea and the world to believe Kim is not a menace to peace, at all.  
4- Exploit a hopeful detente with the South by offering to remove a large part of its artillery corps in exchange for reciprocal arrangements to operate businesses in each other's countries.
5- Attempt to gradually Isolate the U.S. from world opinion regarding North Korea's sanction status.

Guessing the successes of #1-3, is easy: THEY WILL BE SUCCESSFUL. Whether or not #4 happens is uncertain at this point in time, due to possibilities of anticipated interim events.  PREDICTION:  If #4 happens, #5 is almost assured and allows the Kim regime a graceful way to survive for another year or provided Kim ceases missile testing and stops threatening the U.S. with nuclear destruction.


Our previous (October 10, 2017) update kept the Kim Dynasty at Stage 8 of Kim's trek toward his ultimate demise/disappearance.  Now that Kim seems to be winning, he bought himself two clicks in time, moving back to 10 on M.E.'s 0-12 scale  (12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 0). 

Submarines are always silent and strange.