Thursday, August 30, 2012

Accurate hurricane information found imbedded Early U.S. maps

We can mentally process and get probabilities from tabulated hurricane statistics like the table in last year's USA Today article.

Alternatively, a picture is worth a thousand words, so might it be even easier to "read" what has always been readily available and even easier to understand? Check out the picture below.


What do you see? Large areas of the U.S. coastline carved over millions of years by successive hurricanes? If you predicted Miami, the intersection of the largest concave features on the coastline, has the highest probability for hits by both any hurricane and major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or faster passing within 75 miles) you would be correct according to data compiled by Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams as published in Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the Deadliest Storms on Earth.

Unlike a record of millions of years (US coastline image) the probabilities provided by Sheets and Williams may contain some anomalies (intuitive disconnects). Consider whether you find the map image more reliable than the following probabilities pairings excerpted from the table:


Which one of the above pairs does not appear as intuitively correct as the other pairs?

If your answer was B, you have probably learned how to read historical hurricane probabilities from a map of an overall coastline. WARNING: Do not apply this knowledge to islands, even very old ilands.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

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