Kim Jon Un's Unification Strategy --- Critical Flaws

Background

Trump's Strategy:  U.S. strategy has been to create enough internal strife in North Korea's poorly fed underclass to foment a coup by some disenchanted generals.  Spies, Agent provacateurs, and heating oil sanctions were in place and due to exacerbate the unpopularity of Kim's harsh treatment of his vital hard labor workers this winter.  

Kim's Delaying Tactics:  North Korea's co-participation in the Winter Olympics with its South Korean host brightened peasant morale in hopes of continued peace and brighter economic prospects of  re-unification. Continuing shipments of oil to the DPRK in violation of U.N. sanctions, also aassures much needed heating supplies for peasants merely trying to survive another winter.   

Kim appears to have averted a coup, at least this winter.

Kim's Longer Game

Reunification with South Korea:  Kim's sister Yo-jong extended an invitation last Saturday to South Korea's President Moon Jae-in for a two Koreas summit.  During the summit Kim may entice Moon with an offer to an offer to remove heavy artillery now aimed at the South, which would be very popular with the South's citizen's and businesses. In return, Moon would be asked to accept North Korean businesses in the South, and perhaps agree to get the U.S. out of the DMZ.

Suppose President Moon Jae-in leaves rejects Kim's proposals and departs the summit. Kim will publicize his offer and Moon's rejection--- not positive for Moon's electoral prospects.  Moreover, Moon could suddenly fall ill and die like Kim's step brother last year.
If Moon's replacement were more receptive to Kim's proposals he might also be more popular with South Koreans.

Kim's long term strategy is simply to survive and rule a unified Korea on a more prosperous footing to threaten the U.S. and its Asian allies.

Obvious Flaws in Kim's Longer Game

President Moon Jae-in well remembers Kim's capacity for homicide: North Korea's 'gruesome' murder of Kim's brother Kim Jong Nam in February 2017.  Why would Moon ever go to North Korea to ingest a slow-acting poison or a contract a fatal virus?

Without U.S. forces on the DMZ, the DMZ would not be viable, and Moon knows this.  All the more reason for any summit to be held in the DMZ under watchful eyes, ears and video.

Predictions

1- As Kim's PR strategy evaporates due to South Korea's reluctance, Kim must quickly restore his harsh reputation.  He will authorize publication of interim executions within the ranks of his military, as well as civilian for crimes like theft and murder (rather than for growing desertion attempts).  Time table: Probably before the end of 2018.

2- Kim's vaunted submarine fleet will experience accidents and disappearances due to growing age and maintenance issues.  Time table: whatever remains of Kim's life.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Kim Jong-Un v. Trump: The Dynamics and Statics

BACKGROUND DRAMA

Recent media drama centered around North Korea's mandatory celebration of its founding leader's 105th birthday with the ususl parade of military armanents and expectation of yet another nuclear test and/or missile launch.  The drama was conveniently described as a clash between two hardliners, Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump.  Kim even threatened nuclear devastation to South Korea, Japan and the U.S. mainland.  The media covered their entire week-long, fake news drama.

REALITY #1:   Would Vice President Pence visit the DMZ amid the hazardous strife portrayed by the news media? No, he conducted routine policy visits with our allies.

REALITY #2     "Why Did Trump's 'Armada' Sail in the Opposite Direction?" 

As a distraction? No.  To avoid provoking Kim to attack? Yes.

Are Kim's threats hollow? No.  Are Trump's warnings to Kim bluffs? Right now, who knows?

Will trump succeed in de-nuclearizing North Korea?  Yes.  How? The stage has now been set for a coup d'etat in North Korea after Kim loses major face with his military.  When will that happen?  As failures in his ballistic launch capabilities proliferate, which will only be quickened by his promise of frequent tests and launches.  No fortune tellers here, that is all on Kim. 

Kim's military recently boasted it can devestate the U.S. in its own way.  NK's populace are familiar with the boast. Should it prove hollow, Kim would be humiliated and high-ranking military officers will be capriciously executed.  Some already are not completely loyal to Kim and are ready to support a leader who does not import luxuries for his personal consumption as so many countrymen starve.  Some are also undercover spotters for South Korea, keeping regular tabs on movements of high-ranking officials. A very few of them are highly ambitious in their own right and have been awaiting a better opportunity to form a new government with help from mainland _ _ _ _ _.  

Kim Jong-un is the last in his dynasty. Wait and see things unfold against his regime.

Be patient, remember that executions in North Korea do not filter through global news without time for the North Korea public to thoroughly digest the internal cover stories that will result.   

We envision the loss of another North Korean submarine sometime sooner.

Submarines are always silent and strange. 

Tuesday Submarine Tidbits 12 May 15

Category:  Sweden's Competition for Headline Submarine News

We had commented this past October on Sweden's primary motive for its headline, Russian submarine scare.

"It is more likely, in our experience, that a much needed Swedish Military training excercise, a PR recruiting effort, or a combination of both, have been conducted with renewed world attention.  And so we hope."

Today, 12 May 2015, comes this news:  Swedish peace group uses gay sailor sign to fend off Russian submarines 
 

"The Swedish Peace and Arbitration Society (SPAS) has created the 'The Singing Sailor Underwater Defence System' - a small waterproof box with a neon sign of a gyrating topless sailor wearing a pair of skimpy briefs, which transmits the words "this way if you are gay" in morse code through the water.

Below the sailor are neon letters which read "Welcome to Sweden - gay since 1944". 1944 was the year that homosexuality was legalised in Sweden, 23 years before it was made legal in the UK.

SPAS, the world's oldest peace organisation, says the 'Singing Sailor' is a much more cost-effective method of protecting against Russian submarines than the Swedish navy's ongoing series of unsuccessful patrols and searches. SPAS hopes the cheeky device will scare off any vessels from Russia, a nation which has much less tolerant views of homosexuality than Sweden. A 2013 survey found that 74 per cent of Russians thought homosexuality should not be accepted by society."

Category:  WWII Secret

(color emphasis added)
During World War II, troops were stationed in the basement [of NYC's Grand Central Station]. If a person was to wander in there by accident the orders were that he or she would be interned there for the rest of the war. If that person happened to be holding something like a bucket of sand, the orders were to shoot that person on sight.  ...  Adolf Hitler sent spies in two submarines to sabotage the basement during World War II, but they were caught before reaching it. Two were executed and two were imprisoned.  - source

More: Operation Pastorius

Read the full article (only excerpts follow):

"Recruited for Operation Pastorius were eight German residents who had lived in the United States. Two of them, Ernst Burger and Herbert Haupt, were American citizens. The others, George John Dasch, Edward John Kerling, Richard Quirin, Heinrich Harm Heinck, Hermann Otto Neubauer, and Werner Thiel, had worked at various jobs in the United States. All eight were recruited into the Abwehr military intelligence organization and were given three weeks of intensive sabotage training in the German High Command school on an estate at Quenz Lake, near Berlin, Germany.

On the night of 12 June 1942, the first submarine to arrive in the U.S., U-202, landed at Amagansett, New York. ... A massive manhunt for the German agents was conducted; however, they did not know where exactly the Germans were going. ... The other four-member German team headed by Kerling landed without incident at Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, south of Jacksonville on 16 June 1942. They came on U-584, another submarine. ...

Fearful that a civilian court would be too lenient, President Roosevelt issued Executive Proclamation 2561 on 2 July 1942 creating a military tribunal to prosecute the Germans. ...  The trial for the eight defendants ended on 1 August 1942. Two days later, all were found guilty and sentenced to death. Roosevelt commuted Burger's sentence to life in prison and Dasch's to 30 years because they had turned themselves in and provided information about the others. The others were executed on 8 August 1942."

Submarines are always silent and strange.