Tuesday, August 09, 2005

AS-28 A Russian Gaffe? A Spy Drama?

UPDATE AUG 9 Mike Hammerschlag presents more interesting facts and color to this story.
Hammerschlag mentions more than one net. That begs the obvious questions: How many nets were there and where were they made? the investigator in me shows. -Molten Eagle

Originally posted at Ultraquiet No More

To be honest, Blind Man's Bluff honest, the Russian's have been playing close to the vest with their varying descriptions, explanations and press releases, some of which appear contradictory. That is probably standard operating procedure regarding submarine operations for any country. Countries pay handsomely for submarine stealth and want to maintain it as much as possible. Retired Admiral Bruce DeMars said: The Submarine Force is important to the defense of our national interests. It has the only truly stealthy platforms in our armed services and is the heart of our strategic nuclear deterrent. By inference, the stealth would apply to Russia, or at least Russia would hope so (emphasis mine).

The reason truth seems stranger than fiction is because truth's precursor is often scenario analysis; the reason submarines are mysterious is because they are useful instruments of both stealth and deception.

The AS-28 entanglement episode may have been:
1-An intelligence gathering ploy to learn more about foreign emergency communications, equipment availabilities or capabilities, coordination plans, reaction times, etc. I agree, this does not appear at all likely, does it? Hmmm.

2-A decoy to take the world's eyes off something Russia wanted to do elsewhere.

3-An attempt to cover up the deployment of a submarine, coastal defense system anti-tamper device (the netting) that may inadvertently have snared its own sub, AS-28.

4-Something else entirely. Which countries, including China, may be in on it?

5- The latest Russian submarine gaffe.

Will we ever hear a full and accurate report? Unlikely. We have already heard the official stories from several sides. It cannot change much now. - Molten Eagle


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