Monday, January 31, 2011

Funny We Have Not Heard - Mexico to Follow Egypt

About Bill James
West Point grad with concentrations in math, physics, chemistry, and engineering. He was an NCAA All American Wrestler and captain of the wrestling team. He is an eight-year infantry veteran, Airborne, Ranger, Arctic Light and Mechanized Infantry in the United States Army. more
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Some of what Bill James wrote recently (read it all) at Seeking Alpha: Mexico Will Follow Egypt Into Collapse -
Mexico's government gets about 40% of its revenues from oil. As noted in BP data complied at Energy Export Database Mexico's domestic consumption (black line) will force its oil revenues (green area) to drop to zero within a few years. Egypt's oil revenues dropped to about zero in 2010. ...
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Without the ability to feed its people or fund its security forces, it seems unlikely Mexico will remain a viable government. Drug wars illustrate the strength growing in local war lords. The U.S. Joint Forces Command's JOE-2009 noted Mexico as at risk. U.S. border states will likely destabilize. Without cheap oil, the U.S. military is complete unprepared to defense these states from mass migrations.
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Why is this news? Bill James may be a little late. Here is what M.E. asked 3 years ago, when no one else even broached the topic:
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What will it mean to U.S. security arrangements when a formidable PLAN ship (carrier, missile cruiser or submarine) makes a port visit to Venezuela, Ensenada, Mexico, or Cuba? Contrast this to the panic of the 1962, Cuban Missile Crisis. Is the U.S. prepared?
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Here is what M.E. asked 2 years ago:
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What would the U.S. do if/when China attempts to park an aircraft carrier and/or missile firing submarines in the only deep water port in Baja California, Ensenada? It is already being done with dollars, EU currency and secret diplomatic arrangements that may not be shared publicly during your lifetime. China is now heavily dependent on the U.S. as a trading partner. Forget the familiar propaganda about China dumping the large share of U.S. debt that it has bought. Dumping means selling, of course. Who are the willing buyers? If the U.S. buys back debt at current rates, the size of the transaction itself would instantly lower dollar value in runaway episodes (too large to be done all at once, evenin 5 years). In effect, China would be agreeing to be paid cents onthe dollar (in addition to invalidating lucrative trade arrangements). China is enjoying its U.S. trading partnership and has no intention of upsetting its apple cart.
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Is Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton prepared? Does President Obama care? Funny, we have still not heard.
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Submarines are always silent and strange.

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