"China Won't Be A Big Threat To America's Global Power"

Background
Defying pedestrian thinking, Forbes (June 6, 2014) published Loren Thompson's thoughtful précis, Five Reasons China Won't Be A Big Threat To America's Global Power. 

Doctor Thompson is no ordinary blogger. He is the Chief operating officer of the non-profit Lexington Institute. He has taught at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.  And, as Deputy Director of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, he taught graduate-level courses in strategy, technology and media affairs. 

Disagreements
Molten Eagle disagrees with all five of Dr. Thompson's supposedly threat-diminishing rationales.  Rebuttals for only the first 4 are given below, because the 5th, Military weakness, ignores the same Chinese advantages Loren ignores in the first four. In each of these contexts readers may agree that government continuity. steadfastness and patience are actually huge advantages for China.

• 1. Geographical constraints
  "Unlike America, which spent much of its history expanding under doctrines such as Manifest Destiny, China’s potential for territorial growth is severely limited by geography. ...China’s disputes with neighbors over the disposition of minor islands and reefs underscores how little real potential Beijing has for growing its territory the way other powers have."

M.E. rebuttal:  Thompson's comparison gives little weight to China's impressive planning and current overcapacity for vertical expansion (cities built for population growth), which reserves arable land for agriculture. He then ignores the impact of another argument (see Demographic trends next) --- attrition of China's aged population strengthened by decades of limitations on family size. 

• 2. Demographic trends.                                                                                                           "The current fertility rate of 1.6 children per woman is well below the level of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population over the long run. ..."  In the years ahead, a growing population of old people will undermine efforts to stimulate internal demand while creating pressure for increased social-welfare spending.                                  'within a few years, the working age population will reach a historical peak and then begin a sharp decline.'  The vast pool of cheap labor that fueled China’s economic miracle has already begun disappearing, driving up wages and leading some labor-intensive industries to move out. "

M.E. rebuttal:  Thompson's argumentnot only tends to contradict a conclusion of his first bullett, it ignores the massive debt payments owed China by the U.S. Treasury, and a host of countries worldwide benefitting from China's attractive construction projects. Example gratis.

• 3. Economic dependency.                                                                                                          "But even if the low-cost labor that made this possible wasn’t drying up, the reliance of an export-driven economy on foreign markets makes China’s prosperity — per capita GDP is below $10,000 – much more vulnerable than America’s.  China has sold over $100 billion more in goods to the U.S. so far this year than it has bought, but that longstanding boost to the Chinese economy won’t persist if the labor cost differential between the two countries keeps narrowing or Washington decides Beijing is a real danger to its interests.  China is so dependent on offshore resources, markets and investors to keep its economy growing that it can’t run the risk of really scaring its trading partners."

M.E. rebuttal:  On this reason, our objection is largely a matter of degree, but that degree is rather huge.  China's average construction wages, for instance, would have to triple to lose competitiveness with welfare driven Sweden, and quadruple to approach non-competitiveness with similarly driven Norway, Canada, Germany and Japan.  For reference. 

• 4. Political culture.                                                                                                         "Because the Communist Party monopolizes power in China, there is little opportunity for fundamental reform of the political system.  Party officials at all levels routinely leverage that monopoly to engage in epic corruption.  ... [New York’s Tweed] ...was driven from power through democratic processes, whereas China’s political culture offers no such solution."

M.E. rebuttal:  Democratic processes in the U.S. have yielded dramatic policy reversals ushered in by new administrations almost every 4 to 8 years.  The result has been patently wasteful of public treasure and lives, but has encouraged fraud and abuse in management of government programs (e.g. TARP, NASA, DOD, VA healthcare, Solyndra...)..  In these contexts, as well as in the certainty of criminal punishment in China, continuity. steadfastness and patience are actually advantageous.

Submarines are always silent and strange.

ANSWERS: Sub Questions of the Week - 28 OCT 2013

Background and related links to last week's questions are available here.

Q & A

1.  Unlike rods and cones, which send their signals to the brain's visual cortex, the retinal light receptor governing your body clock sends information to another part of the brain. What is that special area of the brain called and where is it located?  ANS: The suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN), is located on the brain's midline directly above the optic chiasm. 

2. What is the official name of "DoD's First Choice for Undersea Biomedical Research"?  ANS: The Naval Submarine Medical Research Laboratory (NSMRL) located at New London Submarine Base in Groton, Connecticut.       

3. Who are the principle collaborators with the military on this new study, and from what institution do they come?  ANS: Drs. Mariana Figueiro and Mark Rea, Director of of RPI's Lighting Research Center (LRC),  the world’s leading university-based research and education center devoted to lighting.

4. In straightforward terms one of the civilian collaborators was described by an authoritative publication as "working with the U.S. Navy to investigate how light can increase performance and alertness in submariners." Identify the authoritaive, civilian publication.  ANS:  RPI News, published by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), Troy, NY.

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI)

Submarines are always silent and strange.

Submarine Questions of the Week - 28 OCT 2013

Background

"why red light is used inside the submarines?"? 

Best Answer (from Yahoo Answers):

I served on Subs during the 70's. On a sub, there is no "night and day" The "day" (at sea)was actually only 18 hrs vs 24 as there were three watches consisting of 6 hours each. You work 12 with 6 off to sleep,study etc. then back to work. Your body clock got very confused, you might get up from sleep only to be served dinner or lunch rather than b'fast. Red lighting in the control room (the only place other than in berthing that the red lights were used.) was only used in preparation of coming to Periscope depth (or the rare surface) or during battle stations when it was dark topside Rig for red served two purposes.First was to acclimate the eyes to darkness of those that were in preparation of going topside during the darkness, and to prevent light from being emitted from the raised periscope. Even though there was a "blackout blind" in the scopes, the crew could not take the risk of light being emitted as it would be able to be seen for miles.  source

More (excerpt):

Red light has minimal effect on night vision because its energy level is so low that the eye doesn't register it strongly enough to produce a compensatory reaction. In near-absolute darkness, both cone and rod cells compensate by pumping out more light-sensitive chemicals. The more time spent in darkness, the more chemicals are produced. In about ten minutes, cone cells max out, producing as much as they are capable of holding.- Hawk

Submarine Questions of the Week

1. Like those giving the above answers, U.S. Submariners probably learned about rods and cones, "the two kinds of receptors in retinas of your eyeballs" during Sub School. But there are several more light receptors in your retina. One of them is essential to maintaining the body's clock. Disruption of the circadian rhythm not only affects body temperature, alertness, appetite, and hormone secretion, etc., research now suggests it may contribute to depression, immunity, and disease.

Unlike rods and cones, which send their signals to the brain's visual cortex, the retinal light receptor governing your body clock sends information to another part of the brain.  What is that special are of the brain called and where is it located?
 

2.  The "DoD's First Choice for Undersea Biomedical Research" recently announced a collaborative study to phase-shift and/or phase-lock circadian rhythms to optimize operational readiness. Its overall mission to protect the health and enhance the performance of warfighters through submarine, diving and surface biomedical research solutions (see Question 4. below for a simpler statement of goal). What is the official name of "DoD's First Choice for Undersea Biomedical Research"?

3.  Who are the principle collaborators with the military on this new study, and from what institution do they come?


4.  In straightforward terms one of the civilian collaborators was described by an authoritative publication as "working with the U.S. Navy to investigate how light can increase performance and alertness in submariners." Identify the authoritaive, civilian publication.

ANSWERS:  Wednesday, 30 OCT 2013

 

Submarines are always silent and strange.

working with the U.S. Navy to investigate how light can increase performance and alertness in submariners. - See more at: http://news.rpi.edu/content/2013/10/25/mariana-figueiro-elected-fellow-illuminating-engineering-society#sthash.EbEhwhKy.dpuf

working with the U.S. Navy to investigate how light can increase performance and alertness in submariners. - See more at: http://news.rpi.edu/content/2013/10/25/mariana-figueiro-elected-fellow-illuminating-engineering-society#sthash.EbEhwhKy.dpuf